Fig. 2

Input parameter initial plausible ranges and fitted values. Histograms show the distribution of values in the 100 model fits for the seven transmission input parameters (a) baseline transmission; b) transmission probability from men to women, relative to transmission probability from women to men; c) relative transmission probability on established ART; d) relative transmission probability with CD4 count <200 cells/μl; e) relative transmission probability with CD4 count >350 cells/μl; f) relative transmission probability during primary infection; g) duration of primary infection (months)). Scatter graphs show the joint distribution of pairs of input parameters. The red lines show the initial plausible ranges, before model fitting. All plausible input ranges were independent of the values of other input parameters, with the exception of ‘primary transmission’ and ‘primary duration’ which had a two-dimensional joint plausible range. The plausible upper limit for ‘baseline’ was 1, and is not shown on the graphs