Modelling the burden of hepatitis C infection among people who inject drugs in Norway, 1973–2030

Meijerink, Hinta; White, Richard A; Løvlie, Astrid; de Blasio, Birgitte Freiesleben; Dalgard, Olav; Amundsen, Ellen J.; Melum, Espen; Kløvstad, Hilde

doi:10.1186/s12879-017-2631-2

BMC Infectious Diseases

Table 3 Estimates from the model on hepatitis C burden among people who inject drugs in Norway

From: Modelling the burden of hepatitis C infection among people who inject drugs in Norway, 1973–2030

	Absolute numbers with 95% CI						% attribution PWID^a
	2000		2015		2030		2000	2015	2030
Overlapping prevalence
Alive	17,613	17,069–17,554	22,292	2159–22,243	23,355	22,584–23,344	52	38	34
HCV+ (incl. Treatment)	7911	7292–7885	7682	6901–7686	5552	4801–5566	56	45	42
HCV+ (excl. Treatment)	7525	6935–7498	6892	6150–6904	4657	3968–4684	57	46	43
HCV treatment	387	333–382	790	669–784	895	747–889	47	40	35
Discrete prevalence
HCV+ chronic	6622	6066–6596	6549	5894–6550	4486	3839–4496	52	43	40
Cirrhosis	771	635–758	1421	1163–1642	1419	1017–1444	39	34	30
HCC	20	11–20	33	19–32	27	16–28	40	39	37
Transplant	1	0–1	10	2–7	13	4–11	0	10	8
Incidence
HCV+ acute	781	713–780	381	330–380	294	240–296	100	100	100
HCV+ chronic	605	541–606	285	239–285	219	176–220	86	86	86
Cirrhosis	86	66–86	88	66–88	58	41–58	49	41	38
HCC	13	6–12	24	14–24	23	13–23	38	33	30
Transplant	1	0–1	10	2–7	13	4–11	0	10	8
Yearly mortality
Cirrhosis	14	7–14	20	12–20	18	10–18	43	35	33
HCC	11	4–10	18	10–18	15	8–16	36	39	40
Transplant	0	0–0	1	0–1	2	0–2		0	0
Total HCV related	25	15–24	40	27–40	36	24–36	40	35	33
Total not related-HCV	243	213–242	256	224–256	354	311–352	96	85	64
Cumulative mortality
Total HCV related	243	189–235	764	639–753	1345	1151–1337	44	40	38
Total not related-HCV	3165	3010–3141	6973	6715–6938	11,444	11,014–11,393	97	94	86
YLLs
Cirrhosis	588	304–569	665	368–656	394	202–398	44	38	33
HCC	429	177–410	576	308–560	326	158–334	40	40	41
Transplant	7	0–0	47	0–35	51	0–36	14	6	6
Total HCV related	1024	613–996	1288	848–1280	771	504–778	42	38	35
Total not related-HCV	12,231	10,654–12,191	9822	8567–9840	8730	7553–8716	97	90	80
YLDs
HCV+ acute	198	181–198	97	84–97	75	61–75	100	100	100
HCV+ chronic	1682	1541–1675	1664	1497–1664	1139	975–1142	52	43	40
Cirrhosis	250	205–246	423	350–421	428	328–433	41	35	30
HCC	13	7–13	21	12–20	17	10–18	38	38	41
Transplant	1	0–1	6	1–4	8	3–7	0	0	0
Total HCV related	2144	1970–2135	2210	1982–2210	1667	1440–1672	55	44	40
DALYs
HCV+ acute	198	181–198	97	84–97	75	61–75	100	100	100
HCV+ chronic	1682	1541–1675	1664	1497–1664	1139	975–1142	52	43	40
Cirrhosis	838	540–815	1088	761–1074	822	572–832	43	37	32
HCC	442	184–423	597	325–580	343	173–352	40	40	41
Transplant	8	0–1	53	1–39	59	3–42	12	6	5
Total HCV related	3168	2674–3128	3498	2950–3496	2438	2038–2452	51	41	38

HCV: hepatitis C infection, PWID: people who inject drugs, HCC: hepatocellular carcinoma; YLDs: years lost of disabilities; YLLs: years of life lost; DALYs; disability adjusted life years ^a: Proportion that is attributable to active PWIDs

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ISSN: 1471-2334

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