From: Modelling the burden of hepatitis C infection among people who inject drugs in Norway, 1973–2030
Estimate | From literature | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Variable | Estimate | Lower | Upper | Lower | Upper | Estimatedb | Data sourceb |
Injecting drug parameters | |||||||
Excess PWID mortality | 0.022 | - | - | - | - | No | [28] |
Yearly probability of ex-PWID relapse | 0.116 | - | - | - | - | Yes | Internal SIRUS estimates |
Yearly probability of PWID temporary cessation | 0.114 | - | - | - | - | Yes | Internal SIRUS estimates |
Yearly probability of PWID permanent cessation | 0.025 | - | - | - | - | No | Internal SIRUS estimates |
Genotype prevalence | |||||||
Genotype 1 | 0.350 | - | - | - | - | No | MSIS |
Genotype 2 | 0.150 | - | - | - | - | No | MSIS |
Genotype 3 | 0.500 | - | - | - | - | No | MSIS |
Probability of successful treatment | |||||||
Genotype 1 | 0.450 | - | - | - | - | No | [29] |
Genotype 2 | 0.800 | - | - | - | - | No | [29] |
Genotype 3 | 0.800 | - | - | - | - | No | [29] |
Time-dependent changes to yearly transition probabilities | |||||||
Yearly multiplicative change in treatment from 2004 | 1.073 | 1.065 | 1.092 | 1.001 | 1.100 | Yes | Expert opinion |
Proportion of infectiousness reduction with 100% needle exchange coveragea | 0.316 | 0.206 | 0.356 | 0.001 | 0.500 | Yes | Expert opinion |
Yearly multiplicative change in LT from 2000 | 1.232 | 1.166 | 1.284 | 1.001 | 1.300 | Yes | Expert opinion |
Yearly transition probabilities | |||||||
S - > HCV_AIc | 0.083 | 0.081 | 0.085 | 0.010 | 0.400 | Yes | Expert opinion |
HCV_AI - > HCV_CI | 0.733 | 0.721 | 0.766 | 0.710 | 0.860 | Yes | [30] |
HCV_CI - > T_CI | 0.046 | 0.041 | 0.050 | 0.020 | 0.080 | Yes | [31] |
HCV_CI - > HCV_C | 0.014 | 0.014 | 0.015 | 0.001 | 0.052 | Yes | [29] |
HCV_C - > T_C | 0.306 | 0.297 | 0.338 | 0.010 | 0.400 | Yes | Expert opinion |
HCV_C - > HCC | 0.021 | 0.019 | 0.021 | 0.014 | 0.084 | Yes | |
HCV_C - > LT | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.006 | 0.000 | 0.020 | Yes | Expert opinion |
HCV_C - > M | 0.034 | 0.032 | 0.035 | 0.025 | 0.035 | Yes | |
HCC - > LT | 0.056 | 0.031 | 0.056 | 0.012 | 0.056 | Yes | [29] |
HCC - > M | 0.555 | 0.547 | 0.628 | 0.545 | 0.676 | Yes | [32] |
LT - > HCV_CI | 0.326 | 0.116 | 0.485 | 0.050 | 0.500 | Yes | Expert opinion |
LT - > M | 0.165 | 0.126 | 0.177 | 0.110 | 0.180 | Yes | [32] |