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Table 2 Parameters used to estimate hepatitis C burden among people who injecting drugs in Norway, 1973–2030

From: Modelling the burden of hepatitis C infection among people who inject drugs in Norway, 1973–2030

 

Estimate

From literature

Variable

Estimate

Lower

Upper

Lower

Upper

Estimatedb

Data sourceb

Injecting drug parameters

Excess PWID mortality

0.022

-

-

-

-

No

[28]

Yearly probability of ex-PWID relapse

0.116

-

-

-

-

Yes

Internal SIRUS estimates

Yearly probability of PWID temporary cessation

0.114

-

-

-

-

Yes

Internal SIRUS estimates

Yearly probability of PWID permanent cessation

0.025

-

-

-

-

No

Internal SIRUS estimates

Genotype prevalence

Genotype 1

0.350

-

-

-

-

No

MSIS

Genotype 2

0.150

-

-

-

-

No

MSIS

Genotype 3

0.500

-

-

-

-

No

MSIS

Probability of successful treatment

Genotype 1

0.450

-

-

-

-

No

[29]

Genotype 2

0.800

-

-

-

-

No

[29]

Genotype 3

0.800

-

-

-

-

No

[29]

Time-dependent changes to yearly transition probabilities

Yearly multiplicative change in treatment from 2004

1.073

1.065

1.092

1.001

1.100

Yes

Expert opinion

Proportion of infectiousness reduction with 100% needle exchange coveragea

0.316

0.206

0.356

0.001

0.500

Yes

Expert opinion

Yearly multiplicative change in LT from 2000

1.232

1.166

1.284

1.001

1.300

Yes

Expert opinion

Yearly transition probabilities

S - > HCV_AIc

0.083

0.081

0.085

0.010

0.400

Yes

Expert opinion

HCV_AI - > HCV_CI

0.733

0.721

0.766

0.710

0.860

Yes

[30]

HCV_CI - > T_CI

0.046

0.041

0.050

0.020

0.080

Yes

[31]

HCV_CI - > HCV_C

0.014

0.014

0.015

0.001

0.052

Yes

[29]

HCV_C - > T_C

0.306

0.297

0.338

0.010

0.400

Yes

Expert opinion

HCV_C - > HCC

0.021

0.019

0.021

0.014

0.084

Yes

[29, 32, 33]

HCV_C - > LT

0.001

0.001

0.006

0.000

0.020

Yes

Expert opinion

HCV_C - > M

0.034

0.032

0.035

0.025

0.035

Yes

[32, 33]

HCC - > LT

0.056

0.031

0.056

0.012

0.056

Yes

[29]

HCC - > M

0.555

0.547

0.628

0.545

0.676

Yes

[32]

LT - > HCV_CI

0.326

0.116

0.485

0.050

0.500

Yes

Expert opinion

LT - > M

0.165

0.126

0.177

0.110

0.180

Yes

[32]

  1. aInfectiousness = Infectiousnessb(1-InfectiousnessReductionbNeedleCoverage)
  2. bThe “Estimated” column reflects whether or not the estimates are calibrated parameters or taken directly from the literature. The “Data source” column reflects either the literature point estimates (if estimated = no) or the literature upper and lower bounds used in parameter estimation (if estimated = yes)
  3. cSee the “Infectiousness” section in the methods section for more details
  4. HCV: hepatitis C infection, PWID: people who inject drugs, S: susceptible, AI: acute HCV infection, CI: chronic HCV infection, T: treatment, C: cirrhosis, HCC: hepatocellular carcinoma, LT: liver transplant, M: HCV associated mortality