Table 2 HIV incidence rates per 100 person-years (and percentage reduction compared to the baseline incidence rate), prevalence (%), and population viral load suppression (%) after four years of interventions
From: Combined interventions to reduce HIV incidence in KwaZulu-Natal: a modelling study
Incidence rates | Overall prevalence | Overall population viral load suppression | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Overall (baseline: 2.25) | Men (baseline: 1.15) | Women (baseline: 3.28) | Aged 15–24 years (baseline: 1.76) | Aged 25–34 years (baseline: 4.58) | Aged 35–59 years (baseline: 1.56) | |||
No changea | 1.70 (−24%) | 1.01 (−11%) | 2.40 (−27%) | 1.21 (−31%) | 3.24 (−29%) | 1.28 (−18%) | 26.5 | 65.1 |
ART at CD4<500 at: | ||||||||
55%, 75%, 85%b | ||||||||
+ Baseline VMMC | 1.57 (−30%) | 0.88 (−23%) | 2.27 (−31%) | 1.13 (−36%) | 2.98 (−35%) | 1.14 (−27%) | 26.3 | 69.3 |
15–24 years: 26% | ||||||||
25–34 years: 21% | ||||||||
35–59 years: 19% | ||||||||
+ Increased VMMC at: | 1.50 (−34%) | 0.77 (−32%) | 2.23 (−32%) | 1.08 (−39%) | 2.81 (−39%) | 1.13 (−27%) | 26.3 | 69.4 |
15–24 years: 70% | ||||||||
+ Increased VMMC at: | 1.55 (−31%) | 0.85 (−26%) | 2.25 (−31%) | 1.12 (−36%) | 2.93 (−36%) | 1.13 (−28%) | 26.3 | 69.3 |
15–24 years: 35% | ||||||||
25–34 years: 25% | ||||||||
35–59 years: 20% | ||||||||
ART for all at: | ||||||||
50%, 70%, 80%b | ||||||||
+ Baseline VMMC | 1.44 (−36%) | 0.77 (−33%) | 2.12 (−35%) | 1.05 (−40%) | 2.74 (−40%) | 1.02 (−34%) | 26.2 | 72.8 |
15–24 years: 26% | ||||||||
25–34 years: 21% | ||||||||
35–59 years: 19% | ||||||||
+ Increased VMMC at: | 1.38 (−39%) | 0.68 (−41%) | 2.09 (−36%) | 1.01 (−43%) | 2.58 (−44%) | 1.01 (−35%) | 26.1 | 72.9 |
15–24 years: 70% | ||||||||
+ Increased VMMC at | 1.42 (−37%) | 0.74 (−35%) | 2.11 (−36%) | 1.04 (−41%) | 2.69 (−41%) | 1.01 (−35%) | 26.1 | 72.8 |
15–24 years: 35% | ||||||||
25–34 years: 25% | ||||||||
35–59 years: 20% | ||||||||
ART for all at: | ||||||||
50%, 70%, 80%b | ||||||||
+ Increased PrEP at: | 1.36 (−40%) | 0.76 (−34%) | 1.97 (−40%) | 0.96 (−46%) | 2.62 (−43%) | 1.01 (−35%) | 26.1 | 72.9 |
15–24 years: 20% | ||||||||
+ Increased PrEP at: | 1.28 (−43%) | 0.75 (−35%) | 1.82 (−45%) | 0.86 (−51%) | 2.50 (−45%) | 1.00 (−36%) | 25.9 | 73.1 |
15–24 years: 40% | ||||||||
+ Increased PrEP at: | 1.37 (−39%) | 0.76 (−34%) | 1.98 (−40%) | 0.98 (−44%) | 2.60 (−43%) | 1.00 (−36%) | 26.1 | 72.9 |
15–24 years: 15% | ||||||||
25–34 years: 10% | ||||||||
35–59 years: 5% | ||||||||