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Table 2 HIV incidence rates per 100 person-years (and percentage reduction compared to the baseline incidence rate), prevalence (%), and population viral load suppression (%) after four years of interventions

From: Combined interventions to reduce HIV incidence in KwaZulu-Natal: a modelling study

  Incidence rates Overall prevalence Overall population viral load suppression
Overall (baseline: 2.25) Men (baseline: 1.15) Women (baseline: 3.28) Aged 15–24 years (baseline: 1.76) Aged 25–34 years (baseline: 4.58) Aged 35–59 years (baseline: 1.56)
No changea 1.70 (−24%) 1.01 (−11%) 2.40 (−27%) 1.21 (−31%) 3.24 (−29%) 1.28 (−18%) 26.5 65.1
ART at CD4<500 at:         
  55%, 75%, 85%b
 + Baseline VMMC 1.57 (−30%) 0.88 (−23%) 2.27 (−31%) 1.13 (−36%) 2.98 (−35%) 1.14 (−27%) 26.3 69.3
  15–24 years: 26%
  25–34 years: 21%
  35–59 years: 19%
 + Increased VMMC at: 1.50 (−34%) 0.77 (−32%) 2.23 (−32%) 1.08 (−39%) 2.81 (−39%) 1.13 (−27%) 26.3 69.4
  15–24 years: 70%
 + Increased VMMC at: 1.55 (−31%) 0.85 (−26%) 2.25 (−31%) 1.12 (−36%) 2.93 (−36%) 1.13 (−28%) 26.3 69.3
  15–24 years: 35%
  25–34 years: 25%
  35–59 years: 20%
ART for all at:         
  50%, 70%, 80%b
 + Baseline VMMC 1.44 (−36%) 0.77 (−33%) 2.12 (−35%) 1.05 (−40%) 2.74 (−40%) 1.02 (−34%) 26.2 72.8
  15–24 years: 26%
  25–34 years: 21%
  35–59 years: 19%
 + Increased VMMC at: 1.38 (−39%) 0.68 (−41%) 2.09 (−36%) 1.01 (−43%) 2.58 (−44%) 1.01 (−35%) 26.1 72.9
  15–24 years: 70%
 + Increased VMMC at 1.42 (−37%) 0.74 (−35%) 2.11 (−36%) 1.04 (−41%) 2.69 (−41%) 1.01 (−35%) 26.1 72.8
  15–24 years: 35%
  25–34 years: 25%
  35–59 years: 20%
ART for all at:         
 50%, 70%, 80%b
 + Increased PrEP at: 1.36 (−40%) 0.76 (−34%) 1.97 (−40%) 0.96 (−46%) 2.62 (−43%) 1.01 (−35%) 26.1 72.9
  15–24 years: 20%
 + Increased PrEP at: 1.28 (−43%) 0.75 (−35%) 1.82 (−45%) 0.86 (−51%) 2.50 (−45%) 1.00 (−36%) 25.9 73.1
  15–24 years: 40%
 + Increased PrEP at: 1.37 (−39%) 0.76 (−34%) 1.98 (−40%) 0.98 (−44%) 2.60 (−43%) 1.00 (−36%) 26.1 72.9
  15–24 years: 15%
  25–34 years: 10%
  35–59 years: 5%
  1. aNo change in baseline interventions: ART at CD4 < 350 and baseline VMMC (i.e. VMMC coverage at 26%, 21%, and 19% among age groups 15–24, 25–34, and 35–59 years respectively; see Methods section)
  2. bFor age groups 15–24 years, 25–34 years and 35–59 years respectively