From: Using electronic health records and Internet search information for accurate influenza forecasting
 | real-time | forecast 1 week | forecast 2 week | forecast 3 week |
---|---|---|---|---|
RMSE | ||||
 ARGO | 0.315 | 0.435 | 0.487 | 0.459 |
 Ref. [11] | 0.469 | 0.544 | 0.590 | 0.578 |
 ar4 | 0.944 | 0.954 | 0.935 | 0.902 |
 naive | 1 (0.374) | 1 (0.613) | 1 (0.756) | 1 (0.869) |
MAE | ||||
 ARGO | 0.403 | 0.446 | 0.456 | 0.426 |
 Ref. [11] | 0.497 | 0.614 | 0.603 | 0.593 |
 ar4 | 0.895 | 0.880 | 0.872 | 0.867 |
 naive | 1 (0.221) | 1 (0.363) | 1 (0.480) | 1 (0.575) |
RMSPE | ||||
 ARGO | 0.449 | 0.474 | 0.504 | 0.461 |
 Ref. [11] | 0.655 | 0.677 | 0.657 | 0.691 |
 ar4 | 1.001 | 1.018 | 1.032 | 1.044 |
 naive | 1 (0.126) | 1 (0.194) | 1 (0.246) | 1 (0.293) |
MAPE | ||||
 ARGO | 0.481 | 0.458 | 0.454 | 0.419 |
 Ref. [11] | 0.625 | 0.704 | 0.662 | 0.676 |
 ar4 | 0.956 | 0.965 | 0.977 | 0.988 |
 naive | 1 (0.101) | 1 (0.156) | 1 (0.205) | 1 (0.251) |
Correlation | Â | Â | Â | Â |
 ARGO | 0.995 | 0.976 | 0.952 | 0.942 |
 Ref. [11] | 0.989 | 0.960 | 0.928 | 0.904 |
 ar4 | 0.954 | 0.871 | 0.804 | 0.748 |
 naive | 0.951 | 0.867 | 0.796 | 0.727 |
Error reduction of ARGO over the best available alternative (in %) | ||||
 RMSE | 32.90 [16.38,55.54] | 20.07 [5.13,31.38] | 17.40 [1.29,28.82] | 20.53 [11.82,27.33] |
 MAE | 18.79 [0.23,36.67] | 27.44 [10.28,39.18] | 24.41 [7.66,34.53] | 28.13 [15.84,36.38] |
 RMSPE | 31.50 [21.63,40.84] | 29.90 [9.42,41.95] | 23.26 [4.69,33.00] | 33.32 [19.94,41.69] |
 MAPE | 22.92 [7.93,35.94] | 34.95 [18.59,46.76] | 31.42 [12.90,43.04] | 38.02 [26.00,47.26] |