Skip to main content

Table 1 Simulated number of symptomatic cases (pooled over 10 years, 2017–26) for children, for adults and for the total German population

From: Direct and indirect effects of influenza vaccination

Age group Symptomatic cases over 10 years Effects: direct effect in children dC = IV indirect effects I0 - (IS + IV) in children (iC), adults (iA) and the total population (iT)
Sim. 1: I0
(no additional vaccinations)
Sim. 2: IS
(with additional protective QLAIV vaccinations)
Sim. 3: IV
(with additional non-protective vaccinations)
Children (target group) 10,315,818 6,826,372 1,080,655 dC = 1,080,655
iC = 2,408,791
ratio for children only: iC / dC = 2.2
Adults (non-target group) 30,560,738 25,024,812 0 iA = 5,535,926
Total population 40,876,556 31,851,184 1,080,655 dC = 1,080,655
iT = 7,944,717
ratio for total population: iT / dC = 7.4
  1. The 2nd column shows the results if QIV is used with unchanged baseline vaccination coverage (reference scenario). The 3rd column shows what happens if 20% QLAIV vaccination of 2–17 year old children is used in addition to the baseline QIV coverage of other age-grous. The 4th column shows what happens if the same strategy is used as in the 3rd column with a non-protective vaccine instead of QLAIV. The 5th column shows the calculations of direct and indirect effects and of ratios. For numerical results with different QLAIV coverage, see Additional file 1: Table S3