Table 5 Sero-Conversion Rates (SCR) for the two districts for each tested antibody
Kurunegala district | MSP1-Pf | AMA1-Pf | MSP1-Pv | AMA1-Pv | Any Pf antigen | Any Pv antigen |
Model 1 | ||||||
SCR | 0.0079 (0.003-0.009) | 0.0785 (0.025-0.104) | 0.0133 (0.054-0.197) | 0.1058 (0.048-0.177) | 0.0582 (0.048-0.177) | 0.1114 (0.048-0.177) |
SRR | 0.0048 (10−13-1.307) | 0.0608 (0.017-0.104) | 0.0135 (0.003-0.124) | 0.0890 (0.041-0.166) | 0.0239 (0.004-5.43) | 0.0576 (0.041-0.166) |
Model 2 | ||||||
SCR past | 0.0026 (0.0006-0.03) | 0.0045 (0.0025-0.0127) | 0.1212 (10−4-0.33) | 167.372 (2.66-1282.19) | 0.0099 (0.002-1.282) | 104.896 (2.66-128.21) |
SCR present | <10−4 (10−7-1.041) | 0.0597 (0.0369-0.0679) | 0.0123 (10−4-0.04) | 0.0368 (0.030-0.543) | 0.0612 (0.003-5.43) | 0.0340 (0.003-0.542) |
SRR | 0.0272 (0.006-0.06) | <10−4 (10−7-105) | 0.0327 (0.0-1.0) | 0.1369 (10−7-8.111) | <10−4 (10−8-105) | 0.0930 (10−87-8.11) |
Change point | 12 | 11 | 30 | 5 | 13 | 5 |
p-value (LRT) | 0.061 | 0.115 | 0.015 | 0.049 | 0.087 | 0.058 |
Moneragala district | ||||||
Model 1 | ||||||
SCR | 0.0665 (0.0131-0.188) | 0.0548 (0.053-0.689) | 0.0309 (10−3-1.36) | 0.0536 (0.005-0.68) | 0.0751 (0.04-0.177) | 0.0653 (0.0091-0.13) |
SRR | <10−4 (10−7-5.59) | <10−4 (10−8-1.88) | <10−4 (10−41-2.97) | 0.0003 (10−89-1.88) | <10−4 (10−5-0.166) | <10−4 (10−41-2.97) |
Model 2 | ||||||
SCR past | 0.0192 (0.0050-0.0765) | 0.1749 (0.022-0.35) | 0.1312 (0.02-0.4) | 0.1998 (0.022-0.35) | 0.2572 (0.002-1.28) | 0.2935 (0.022-0.49) |
SCR present | 0.0011 (10−23-0.846) | 0.0231 (0.003-0.129) | 0.0022 (10−4-0.0026) | 0.0256 (0.0035-0.129) | 0.0268 (0.003-5.43) | 0.0251 (10−4-0.269) |
SRR | <10−4 (10−23-1.085) | 0.0026 (10−67-0.149) | 0.0046 (10−7-3.48) | 0.0038 (10−67-1.49) | <10−4 (10−87-8.11) | 0.0002 (10−7-3.48) |
Change point | 10 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 16 |
p-value (LRT) | <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 |