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Table 5 Sero-Conversion Rates (SCR) for the two districts for each tested antibody

From: Effectiveness of a serological tool to predict malaria transmission intensity in an elimination setting

Kurunegala district MSP1-Pf AMA1-Pf MSP1-Pv AMA1-Pv Any Pf antigen Any Pv antigen
Model 1
 SCR 0.0079 (0.003-0.009) 0.0785 (0.025-0.104) 0.0133 (0.054-0.197) 0.1058 (0.048-0.177) 0.0582 (0.048-0.177) 0.1114 (0.048-0.177)
 SRR 0.0048 (10−13-1.307) 0.0608 (0.017-0.104) 0.0135 (0.003-0.124) 0.0890 (0.041-0.166) 0.0239 (0.004-5.43) 0.0576 (0.041-0.166)
Model 2
 SCR past 0.0026 (0.0006-0.03) 0.0045 (0.0025-0.0127) 0.1212 (10−4-0.33) 167.372 (2.66-1282.19) 0.0099 (0.002-1.282) 104.896 (2.66-128.21)
 SCR present <10−4 (10−7-1.041) 0.0597 (0.0369-0.0679) 0.0123 (10−4-0.04) 0.0368 (0.030-0.543) 0.0612 (0.003-5.43) 0.0340 (0.003-0.542)
 SRR 0.0272 (0.006-0.06) <10−4 (10−7-105) 0.0327 (0.0-1.0) 0.1369 (10−7-8.111) <10−4 (10−8-105) 0.0930 (10−87-8.11)
 Change point 12 11 30 5 13 5
p-value (LRT) 0.061 0.115 0.015 0.049 0.087 0.058
Moneragala district
Model 1
 SCR 0.0665 (0.0131-0.188) 0.0548 (0.053-0.689) 0.0309 (10−3-1.36) 0.0536 (0.005-0.68) 0.0751 (0.04-0.177) 0.0653 (0.0091-0.13)
 SRR <10−4 (10−7-5.59) <10−4 (10−8-1.88) <10−4 (10−41-2.97) 0.0003 (10−89-1.88) <10−4 (10−5-0.166) <10−4 (10−41-2.97)
Model 2
 SCR past 0.0192 (0.0050-0.0765) 0.1749 (0.022-0.35) 0.1312 (0.02-0.4) 0.1998 (0.022-0.35) 0.2572 (0.002-1.28) 0.2935 (0.022-0.49)
 SCR present 0.0011 (10−23-0.846) 0.0231 (0.003-0.129) 0.0022 (10−4-0.0026) 0.0256 (0.0035-0.129) 0.0268 (0.003-5.43) 0.0251 (10−4-0.269)
 SRR <10−4 (10−23-1.085) 0.0026 (10−67-0.149) 0.0046 (10−7-3.48) 0.0038 (10−67-1.49) <10−4 (10−87-8.11) 0.0002 (10−7-3.48)
 Change point 10 14 16 15 13 16
p-value (LRT) <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001
  1. SCR was calculated assuming constant transmission intensity (Model 1) and a change of transmission intensity at a given change point (Model 2) with 95% Confidence Intervals within brackets. Sero-reversion rates (SRR) and log-likelihood associated with each model are also indicated. P-values refer to comparison between models one and two using the log-likelihood ratio test (LRT)