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Table 3 Mean number of infections per year per 100,000 inhabitants

From: Influence of social contact patterns and demographic factors on influenza simulation results

Country

Original demography and contact matrix

Demography of Finland

Contact matrix of Belgium

No vacc.

Original vacc.

Unified vacc.

No vacc.

Unified vacc.

No vacc.

Unified vacc.

Belgium

29,194

24,391 (−16.5 %)

24,301 (−16.8 %)

28,799

23,566 (−18.2 %)

29,194

24,301 (−16.8 %)

Finland

26,675

23,002 (−13.8 %)

22,270 (−16.5 %)

26,675

22,270 (−16.5 %)

28,799

23,566 (−18.2 %)

Germany

20,984

13,263 (−36.8 %)

14,795 (−29.5 %)

24,893

19,174 (−23.0 %)

27,249

21,327 (−21.7 %)

Great Britain

28,952

23,617 (−18.4 %)

24,480 (−15.4 %)

27,975

23,121 (−17.4 %)

29,474

24,552 (−16.7 %)

Italy

31,322

27,643 (−11.7 %)

28,238 (−9.8 %)

31,997

28,880 (−9.7 %)

27,584

22,135 (−19.8 %)

Luxembourg

31,216

n.a.

28,588 (−8.4 %)

30,256

26,913 (−11.0 %)

29,970

25,409 (−15.2 %)

Netherlands

29,351

25,319 (−13.7 %)

25,562 (−12.9 %)

29,135

25,437 (−12.7 %)

28,507

23,339 (−18.1 %)

Poland

30,056

28,297 (−5.9 %)

26,750 (−11.0 %)

30,167

26,641 (−11.7 %)

28,498

23,491 (−17.6 %)

CV

11.8 %

21.1 %

18.1 %

7.8 %

12.6 %

3.2 %

5.6 %

  1. Mean number of infections per year per 100,000 inhabitants without or with vaccination, using either the country’s own combination of contact matrix and demography, or replacing the country’s contact matrix by the Belgian one, or replacing the country’s demography by the Finish one; “Original vacc.” denotes the vaccination coverage which actually is used in the different countries (unknown for Luxembourg); “Unified vacc.” uses the same vaccination strategy in every country (see text for details); trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) is used before 2014; tetravalent influenza vaccine (QIV) is used from 2014 to 2033. Each cell gives the average result of 1000 simulations running from 2014 to 2033