Fig. 7

Results of date of elimination simulations. a Log-score vs. the scaling factor in the migration rate model and the LGA-level coefficient of variation in campaign coverage. b Log-score vs. the time at which campaign coverage begins to increase, and the relative annual rate of increase. c Log-score vs. the base campaign and the relative annual rate of coverage increase. d Data (blue) and score-weighted distribution of simulations (68, 95, 99 % quantiles in red) for age distribution of paralysis cases. e Data (blue) and score-weighted distribution of simulations (68, 95, 99 % quantiles in red) for time series of case counts. f Data (blue) and score-weighted distribution of simulations (68, 95, 99 % quantiles in red) for the number of LGAs reporting at least 1 case in a given time period