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Table 1 Setting-specific model inputs for Analyses II and III, adapted from the global model [4] and adopting all other global model assumptions, including generic inputs from the DEB model.[16, 17]

From: Implementation of coordinated global serotype 2 oral poliovirus vaccine cessation: risks of potential non-synchronous cessation

Region R0 α pd κ tr POL3 TC Prm poro # tOPV SIAs in 2015 Year of IPV introduction Hypothetical switch date
Analysis II:             
Hypothetical population 10 or 13 0 NA 0.35 0.6 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.3 2 2015 Variable after last SIA in 2015
Analysis III:             
Population like northern India 13 0.2 180 0.35 0.6     0.3 2 2015  
 - Pop. A, subpop. 0 (under-vacc.)       0.3 0.8 0.7     Mid-2015
 - Pop. A, subpop. 1 (general)       0.6 0.95 0.5     Mid-2015
 - Pop. B, subpop. 0 (under-vacc.)       0.3 0.8 0.7     April 1, 2016
 - Pop. B, subpop 1 (general)       0.6 0.95 0.5     April 1, 2016
Population like northern Pakistan/Afghanistan 11 0.2 180 0.35 0.65     0.3   2015  
 - Pop. A, subpop. 0 (general)       0.6 0.8 0.7   2   Mid-2015
 - Pop. A, subpop. 1 (general)       0.6 0.8 0.7   2   Mid-2015
 - Pop. B, subpop. 0 (under-vacc.)       0.1 0.35 0.95   3   April 1, 2016
 - Pop. B, subpop 1 (general)       0.6 0.8 0.7   2   April 1, 2016
Population like Ukraine 6 0.4 180 0.45 0.74     0.8 0 2005  
 - Pop. A, subpop. 0 (general)       0.7a 0.8 0.7     Mid-2015 
 - Pop. A, subpop. 1 (general)       0.7a 0.8 0.7     Mid-2015
 - Pop. B, subpop. 0 (under-vacc.)       0.3 a 0.8 0.7     April 1, 2016
 - Pop. B, subpop 1 (under-vacc. )       0.3a 0.8 0.7     April 1, 2016
  1. Model input symbols: [3, 16] R 0 average annual basic reproduction number for WPV of serotype 1, α seasonal amplitude of R0, defined as the “proportional change in R0 due to seasonality” [16, p. 717], pd peak day of R0, κ strength of preferential mixing between age groups, defined as the “proportion of contacts reserved for individuals within the same mixing age group”[16, p. 717], tr take rate of serotype 2 tOPV, POL3 RI coverage with 3 or more non-birth doses, TC true coverage of each SIA, P rm repeated missed probability of each SIA, poro, proportion of transmissions via oropharyngeal route
  2. aAssume POL3 = 90 % prior to 2010