BMC Infectious Diseases

Table 1 Parameter estimation for plausible ARIMA models^a

From: Prevalence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Yiyuan County, China, 2005–2014

Parameter	ARIMA (2, 1, 1) × (0, 1, 0)₁₂			ARIMA (2, 1, 0) × (0, 1, 1)₁₂			ARIMA (1, 1,1) × (1, 1, 1)₁₂			ARIMA (2, 1, 1) × (0, 1, 1)₁₂
Parameter	B	t	P	B	t	P	B	t	P	B	t	P
AR1,1	−0.479	−4.510	<0.001	−0.463	−4.740	<0.001	0.422	3.070	0.003	−0.458	−4.460	<0.001
AR2,1							0.449	1.800	0.075
MA1,1	0.308	3.020	0.003				0.873	11.100	<0.001	0.275	2.650	0.009
MA2,1				0.375	3.580	<0.001	0.743	3.850	<0.001	0.314	2.910	0.005

^a AR1,1 = autoregressive parameter; AR2,1 = seasonal autoregressive parameter; MA1,1 = moving average parameter; MA2,1 = seasonal moving average parameter

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