Health and economic consequences of different options for timing the coordinated global cessation of the three oral poliovirus vaccine serotypes

Table 2 Estimated (undiscounted) VAPP cases and OPV vaccine use by serotype for the different OPV cessation timing options that all lead to no expected cVDPV cases

Name of OPV cessation timing option	Number of VAPP cases 2015-2019				Polio vaccine use 2015–2019 (billions of doses)^a
Name of OPV cessation timing option	PV1	PV2	PV3	Total	tOPV	bOPV	mOPV1	IPV	All polio vaccine
Current timing plan	41	75	404	520	3.3	8.2	0	1.3	12.8
OPV23 cessation in 2017	42	122	219	383	5.2	1.3	4.9	1.3	12.8
OPV123 cessation in 2018	34	168	302	504	7.1	1.9	0	1.4	10.4
OPV123 cessation in 2019	43	214	383	634	9.0	2.5	0	1.3	12.8
OPV123 cessation in 2019 with tOPV-only from 2017	44	210	382	635	10.1	1.3	0	1.3	12.8
OPV123 cessation in 2019 with IPV added from 2018	58	252	499	810	9.2	2.5	0	0.8	12.4

Abbreviations: bOPV, bivalent OPV (serotypes 1 and 3); cVPDV, circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus; IPV, inactivated poliovirus vaccine; mOPV1, serotype 1 monovalent OPV; OPV, oral poliovirus vaccine; OPV(##) cessation, globally-coordinated cessation of OPV containing the serotype(s) indicated by ##; PV(1,2,3), poliovirus (serotype 1, 2, or 3, respectively); RI, routine immunization; SIA, supplemental immunization activity; tOPV, trivalent OPV; VAPP, vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis
^aIncludes RI and planned, preventive SIAs, with no outbreak response SIAs triggered for any of the options

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