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Table 2 Estimated (undiscounted) VAPP cases and OPV vaccine use by serotype for the different OPV cessation timing options that all lead to no expected cVDPV cases

From: Health and economic consequences of different options for timing the coordinated global cessation of the three oral poliovirus vaccine serotypes

Name of OPV cessation timing option Number of VAPP cases 2015-2019 Polio vaccine use 2015–2019 (billions of doses)a
PV1 PV2 PV3 Total tOPV bOPV mOPV1 IPV All polio vaccine
Current timing plan 41 75 404 520 3.3 8.2 0 1.3 12.8
OPV23 cessation in 2017 42 122 219 383 5.2 1.3 4.9 1.3 12.8
OPV123 cessation in 2018 34 168 302 504 7.1 1.9 0 1.4 10.4
OPV123 cessation in 2019 43 214 383 634 9.0 2.5 0 1.3 12.8
OPV123 cessation in 2019 with tOPV-only from 2017 44 210 382 635 10.1 1.3 0 1.3 12.8
OPV123 cessation in 2019 with IPV added from 2018 58 252 499 810 9.2 2.5 0 0.8 12.4
  1. Abbreviations: bOPV, bivalent OPV (serotypes 1 and 3); cVPDV, circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus; IPV, inactivated poliovirus vaccine; mOPV1, serotype 1 monovalent OPV; OPV, oral poliovirus vaccine; OPV(##) cessation, globally-coordinated cessation of OPV containing the serotype(s) indicated by ##; PV(1,2,3), poliovirus (serotype 1, 2, or 3, respectively); RI, routine immunization; SIA, supplemental immunization activity; tOPV, trivalent OPV; VAPP, vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis
  2. aIncludes RI and planned, preventive SIAs, with no outbreak response SIAs triggered for any of the options