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Table 1 The model’s base case hypotheses – effects of generic and new drugs

From: New Highly Active Antiretroviral drugs and generic drugs for the treatment of HIV infection: a budget impact analysis on the Italian National Health Service (Lombardy Region, Northern Italy)

Drug Semester in which it enters in the model Effects [sensitivity analysis rates]
Generic ABC First semester 2015 100 % of patients receiving branded ABC switch to generic ABC in the semester in which the new drug enter the model [85 %; 100 %]
10 % of patients receiving ABC/3TC switch to generic 3TC + generic ABC in the semester in which the new drug enter the model [5 %; 25 %]
Generic LPV First semester 2016 100 % of patients receiving branded LPV switch to generic LPV in the semester in which the new drug enter the model [85 %; 100 %]
Generic NVP 400 Second semester 2016 100 % of patients receiving branded NVP switch to generic NVP in the semester in which the new drug enter the model [85 %; 100 %]
Generic TDF/FTC/EFV Second semester 2018 60 % of patients receiving branded TDF/FTC/EFV switch to generic TDF/FTC/EFV [50 %; 100 %]
35 % of patients receiving branded TDF/FTC/EFV should switch to generic TDF/FTC/EFV, however clinicians prefer a switch to TAF/FTC/RPV following indications of clinical pathway [25 %; 0 %]
5 % of patients receiving branded TDF/FTC/EFV should switch to generic TDF/FTC/EFV, however clinicians prefer a switch to TAF/FTC/EVG/COBI following indications of clinical pathway [0 %; 0 %]
Generic DRV Second semester 2018 50 % of patients receiving branded DRV + TDF/FTC switch to generic DRV + TAF/FTC [40 %; 100 %]
15 % of patients receiving branded DRV + TDF/FTC should switch to generic DRV + TAF/FTC, however clinicians prefer a switch to TAF/FTC/EVG/COBI following indications of clinical pathway [5 %; 0 %]
15 % of patients receiving branded DRV + TDF/FTC should switch to generic DRV + TAF/FTC, however clinicians prefer a switch to TAF/FTC + DTG following indications of clinical pathway [5 %; 0 %]
20 % of patients receiving branded DRV + TDF/FTC should switch to generic DRV + TAF/FTC, however clinicians prefer a switch to TAF/FTC/RPV following indications of clinical pathway [10 %; 0 %]
DRV + ABC/3TC switch to generic DRV + ABC/3TC [40 %; 100 %]
50 % of patients receiving branded DRV + ABC/3TC should switch to generic DRV + ABC/3TC, however clinicians prefer a switch to ABC/3TC/DTG following indications of clinical pathway [40 %; 0 %]
Generic ATV First semester 2019 50 % of patients receiving branded ATV + TAF/FTC switch to generic ATV + TAF/FTC[40 %; 100 %]
15 % of patients receiving branded ATV + TDF/FTC should switch to generic ATV + TAF/FTC, however clinicians prefer a switch to TAF/FTC/EVG/COBI following indications of clinical pathway [5 %; 0 %]
15 % of patients receiving branded ATV + TDF/FTC should switch to generic ATV + TAF/FTC, however clinicians prefer a switch to TAF/FTC + DTG following indications of clinical pathway [5 %; 0 %]
20 % of patients receiving branded ATV + TDF/FTC should switch to generic ATV + TAF/FTC, however clinicians prefer a switch to TAF/FTC/RPV following indications of clinical pathway [10 %; 0 %]
50 % of patients receiving branded ATV + ABC/3TC switch to generic ATV + ABC/3TC [40 %; 100 %]
50 % of patients receiving branded ATV + ABC/3TC should switch to generic ATV + ABC/3TC, however clinicians prefer a switch to ABC/3TC/DTG following indications of clinical pathway [40 %; 0 %]
DTG First semester 2015 10 % of switching patients receiving DRV (0.78 %) switch to DTG in each semester [5 %; 25 %]
10 % of switching patients receiving ATV (0.78 %) switch to DTG in each semester [5 %; 25 %]
75 % of switching patients receiving RAL (5.87 %) switch to DTG in each semester [50 %; 75 %]
ABC/3TC/DTG Second semester 2015 100 % of patients receiving ABC/3TC + DTG switch to ABC/3TC/DTG in the semester in which the new drug enter the model [85 %; 100 %]
20 % of patients receiving TDF/FTC + DTG switch to ABC/3TC/DTG in the semester in which the new drug enter the model [10 %; 30 %]
TAF/FTC/EVG/COBI Second semester 2016 100 % of patients receiving TDF/FTC/EVG/COBI switch to TAF/FTC/EVG/COBI in the semester in which the new drug enter the model [100 %; 100 %]
TAF/FTC First semester 2017 100 % of patients receiving TDF/FTC switch to TAF/FTC in the semester in which the new drug enter the model [100 %; 100 %]
TAF/FTC/RPV Second semester 2017 100 % of patients receiving TDF/FTC/RPV switch to TAF/FTC/RPV in the semester in which the new drug enter the model [100 %; 100 %]
  1. Abbreviations: 3TC Lamivudine, EFV Efavirenz, TDF Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate, FTC Emtricitabine, NVP Nevirapine, ABC Abacavir, LPV Lopinavir, DTG Dolutegravir, DRV Darunavir, RAL Raltegravir, EVG Elvitegravir, COBI Cobicistat, RPV Rilpivirine, TAF Tenofovir Alafenamide Fumarate. Table legend text