Table 1 The model’s base case hypotheses – effects of generic and new drugs

Generic ABC

100 % of patients receiving branded ABC switch to generic ABC in the semester in which the new drug enter the model [85 %; 100 %]

10 % of patients receiving ABC/3TC switch to generic 3TC + generic ABC in the semester in which the new drug enter the model [5 %; 25 %]

Generic LPV

100 % of patients receiving branded LPV switch to generic LPV in the semester in which the new drug enter the model [85 %; 100 %]

Generic NVP 400

100 % of patients receiving branded NVP switch to generic NVP in the semester in which the new drug enter the model [85 %; 100 %]

Generic TDF/FTC/EFV

60 % of patients receiving branded TDF/FTC/EFV switch to generic TDF/FTC/EFV [50 %; 100 %]

35 % of patients receiving branded TDF/FTC/EFV should switch to generic TDF/FTC/EFV, however clinicians prefer a switch to TAF/FTC/RPV following indications of clinical pathway [25 %; 0 %]

5 % of patients receiving branded TDF/FTC/EFV should switch to generic TDF/FTC/EFV, however clinicians prefer a switch to TAF/FTC/EVG/COBI following indications of clinical pathway [0 %; 0 %]

Generic DRV

50 % of patients receiving branded DRV + TDF/FTC switch to generic DRV + TAF/FTC [40 %; 100 %]

15 % of patients receiving branded DRV + TDF/FTC should switch to generic DRV + TAF/FTC, however clinicians prefer a switch to TAF/FTC/EVG/COBI following indications of clinical pathway [5 %; 0 %]

15 % of patients receiving branded DRV + TDF/FTC should switch to generic DRV + TAF/FTC, however clinicians prefer a switch to TAF/FTC + DTG following indications of clinical pathway [5 %; 0 %]

20 % of patients receiving branded DRV + TDF/FTC should switch to generic DRV + TAF/FTC, however clinicians prefer a switch to TAF/FTC/RPV following indications of clinical pathway [10 %; 0 %]

DRV + ABC/3TC switch to generic DRV + ABC/3TC [40 %; 100 %]

50 % of patients receiving branded DRV + ABC/3TC should switch to generic DRV + ABC/3TC, however clinicians prefer a switch to ABC/3TC/DTG following indications of clinical pathway [40 %; 0 %]

Generic ATV

50 % of patients receiving branded ATV + TAF/FTC switch to generic ATV + TAF/FTC[40 %; 100 %]

15 % of patients receiving branded ATV + TDF/FTC should switch to generic ATV + TAF/FTC, however clinicians prefer a switch to TAF/FTC/EVG/COBI following indications of clinical pathway [5 %; 0 %]

15 % of patients receiving branded ATV + TDF/FTC should switch to generic ATV + TAF/FTC, however clinicians prefer a switch to TAF/FTC + DTG following indications of clinical pathway [5 %; 0 %]

20 % of patients receiving branded ATV + TDF/FTC should switch to generic ATV + TAF/FTC, however clinicians prefer a switch to TAF/FTC/RPV following indications of clinical pathway [10 %; 0 %]

50 % of patients receiving branded ATV + ABC/3TC switch to generic ATV + ABC/3TC [40 %; 100 %]

50 % of patients receiving branded ATV + ABC/3TC should switch to generic ATV + ABC/3TC, however clinicians prefer a switch to ABC/3TC/DTG following indications of clinical pathway [40 %; 0 %]

DTG

10 % of switching patients receiving DRV (0.78 %) switch to DTG in each semester [5 %; 25 %]

10 % of switching patients receiving ATV (0.78 %) switch to DTG in each semester [5 %; 25 %]

75 % of switching patients receiving RAL (5.87 %) switch to DTG in each semester [50 %; 75 %]

ABC/3TC/DTG

100 % of patients receiving ABC/3TC + DTG switch to ABC/3TC/DTG in the semester in which the new drug enter the model [85 %; 100 %]

20 % of patients receiving TDF/FTC + DTG switch to ABC/3TC/DTG in the semester in which the new drug enter the model [10 %; 30 %]

TAF/FTC/EVG/COBI

100 % of patients receiving TDF/FTC/EVG/COBI switch to TAF/FTC/EVG/COBI in the semester in which the new drug enter the model [100 %; 100 %]

TAF/FTC

100 % of patients receiving TDF/FTC switch to TAF/FTC in the semester in which the new drug enter the model [100 %; 100 %]

TAF/FTC/RPV

100 % of patients receiving TDF/FTC/RPV switch to TAF/FTC/RPV in the semester in which the new drug enter the model [100 %; 100 %]