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Table 1 Composite prevalence estimates when the “true” underlying type-specific infection burden is pre-specified as the reported prevalence in the U.S.

From: Evaluation of using composite HPV genotyping assay results to monitor human papillomavirus infection burden through simulation

No. of HPV types* Time§ Pre-specified true composite prevalence (SD) Composite prevalence estimate (SD) Est. to true ratio Composite prevalence estimate (SD) Est. to true ratio Composite prevalence estimate (SD) Est. to true ratio Composite prevalence estimate (SD) Est. to true ratio
a: Sensitivity ≤ Specificity
    Sen.= 0.95   Sen. = 0.90   Sen. = 0.85   Sen. = 0.80  
Spe.= 0.95 Spe. = 0.95 Spe. = 0.95 Spe. = 0.95
2 Baseline 0.064 (0.004) 0.151 (0.006) 2.359 0.148 (0.005) 2.313 0.146 (0.006) 2.281 0.143 (0.005) 2.234
  Reduced 0.032 (0.003) 0.125 (0.005) 3.906 0.123 (0.005) 3.843 0.121 (0.005) 3.781 0.120 (0.005) 3.750
  % red. 50 17.2   16.9   17.1   13.9  
4 Baseline 0.120 (0.005) 0.275 (0.007) 2.292 0.269 (0.007) 2.242 0.264 (0.007) 2.200 0.260 (0.007) 2.167
  Reduced 0.062 (0.004) 0.229 (0.007) 3.694 0.227 (0.006) 3.661 0.224 (0.007) 3.613 0.222 (0.006) 3.581
  % red. 48 16.7   15.6   15.2   14.6  
14 Baseline 0.282 (0.007) 0.616 (0.007) 2.184 0.609 (0.008) 2.160 0.603 (0.008) 2.138 0.596 (0.008) 2.113
  Reduced 0.259 (0.007) 0.604 (0.008) 2.332 0.599 (0.008) 2.313 0.593 (0.008) 2.290 0.587 (0.008) 2.266
  % red. 8.2 1.9   1.6   1.7   1.5  
37 Baseline 0.617 (0.008) 0.904 (0.004) 1.465 0.900 (0.005) 1.459 0.895 (0.005) 1.451 0.891 (0.005) 1.444
  Reduced 0.596 (0.008) 0.899 (0.005) 1.508 0.895 (0.005) 1.502 0.891 (0.005) 1.495 0.887 (0.005) 1.488
  % red. 3.4 0.5   0.6   0.4   0.4  
b: Sensitivity ≥ Specificity
    Sen. = 0.95   Sen. = 0.95   Sen. = 0.95   Sen. = 0.95  
Spe. = 0.95 Spe. = 0.90 Spe. = 0.85 Spe. = 0.80
2 Baseline 0.064 (0.004) 0.151 (0.006) 2.359 0.237 (0.007) 3.703 0.318 (0.007) 4.969 0.394 (0.008) 6.156
  Reduced 0.032 (0.003) 0.125 (0.005) 3.906 0.213 (0.006) 6.656 0.297 (0.007) 9.281 0.374 (0.008) 11.688
  % red. 50 17.2   10.1   6.6   5.1  
4 Baseline 0.120 (0.005) 0.275 (0.007) 2.292 0.409 (0.008) 3.408 0.525 (0.008) 4.375 0.621 (0.008) 5.175
  Reduced 0.062 (0.004) 0.229 (0.007) 3.694 0.374 (0.008) 6.033 0.496 (0.008) 8.000 0.598 (0.008) 9.645
  % red. 48 16.7   8.6   5.5   3.7  
14 Baseline 0.282 (0.007) 0.616 (0.008) 2.184 0.797 (0.006) 2.826 0.895 (0.005) 3.174 0.947 (0.004) 3.358
  Reduced 0.259 (0.006) 0.604 (0.008) 2.332 0.792 (0.006) 3.058 0.892 (0.005) 3.444 0.945 (0.004) 3.649
  % red. 8.2 1.9   0.6   0.3   0.2  
37 Baseline 0.617 (0.008) 0.904 (0.004) 1.465 0.975 (0.002) 1.580 0.993 (0.001) 1.609 0.998 (0.007) 1.515
  Reduced 0.596 (0.008) 0.899 (0.005) 1.508 0.974 (0.003) 1.634 0.993 (0.001) 1.666 0.998 (0.007) 1.674
  % red. 3.4 0.5   0.1   0   0  
  1. *2: high-risk vaccine types (HPV 16, 18); 4: vaccine types (HPV 6, 11, 16, 18); 14: high-risk types (HPV 16, 18, 31, 33, 35, 39, 45, 51, 52, 56, 58, 59, 66, 68); 37: HPV types (HPV 6, 11, 16, 18, 26, 31, 33, 35, 39, 40, 42, 45, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 58, 59,61, 62, 64, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 81, 82, 83, 84, 89, IS39).
  2. §Pre-specified type-specific prevalence at baseline: HPV 6 = 0.028, HPV11 = 0.034, HPV16 = 0.047, HPV18 = 0.019, HPV26 = 0.022, HPV31 = 0.015, HPV33 = 0.013, HPV35 = 0.023, HPV39 = 0.011, HPV40 = 0.018, HPV42 = 0.025, HPV45 = 0.020, HPV51 = 0.041, HPV52 = 0.036, HPV53 = 0.058, HPV54 = 0.038, HPV55 = 0.024, HPV56 = 0.023, HPV58 = 0.014, HPV59 = 0.030, HPV61 = 0.040, HPV62 = 0.065, HPV64 = 0.002, HPV66 = 0.034, HPV67 = 0.013, HPV68 = 0.016, HPV69 = 0.027, HPV70 = 0.020, HPV71 = 0.056, HPV72 = 0.012, HPV73 = 0.015, HPV81 = 0.027, HPV82 = 0.054, HPV83 = 0.041, HPV84 =0.048, HPV89 = 0.047, HPVIS39 = 0.014.
  3. Reduced: vaccine types (HPV 6, 11, 16, 18) are reduced 50%.
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