Risk factor | Stepwise model | Best BMA model | BMA model | Simple model | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OR | 95% CI | P | OR | 95% CI | P | Posterior Probability | OR | 95% CI | P | OR | 95% CI | P | |
Female sex | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.9-1.1 | .894 | |||||||||
Age (per 1-year increment) | 1.02 | 1.00-1.03 | .009 | 44.8 | 1.01 | 0.99-1.03 | .421 | 1.02 | 1.00-1.03 | .009 | |||
Diabetes | 7.8 | 1.0 | 0.8-1.4 | .796 | |||||||||
Chronic skin disease | 3.0 | 1.5-5.8 | .002 | 49.3 | 1.7 | 0.5-5.3 | .369 | 2.9 | 1.5-5.6 | .002 | |||
Hospitalisation (<1 year) | 2.2 | 1.5-3.3 | <.001 | 2.3 | 1.5-3.4 | <.001 | 100 | 2.2 | 1.5-3.4 | <.001 | 2.2 | 1.5-3.3 | <.001 |
Nursing home resident | 3.4 | 1.6–6.8 | .001 | 4.2 | 2.1-8.3 | <.001 | 82.4 | 3.1 | 0.9-10.3 | .070 | 3.4 | 1.7-6.9 | .001 |
Skin wound/sore | 2.7 | 1.7-4.4 | <.001 | 3.0 | 1.8-4.8 | <.001 | 100 | 2.9 | 1.7-4.7 | <.001 | 2.8 | 1.7-4.6 | <.001 |
Antibiotics (<6 months) | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.9-1.2 | .890 | |||||||||
Urinary catheter | 4.5 | 2.0-10.3 | .018 | 4.3 | 1.9-9.6 | <.001 | 72.4 | 2.9 | 0.7-12.8 | .152 | |||
Tracheostomy | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.6-2.0 | .867 | |||||||||
C-statistics for validation dataset | |||||||||||||
Cross-validation, mean (SD)a | 0.643 (0.029) | 0.663 (0.028) | 0.653 (0.031) | 0.687 (0.030) | |||||||||
Athens | 0.598 | 0.610 | 0.606 | 0.640 | |||||||||
Barcelona | 0.762 | 0.797 | 0.798 | 0.797 | |||||||||
Cremona | 0.585 | 0.641 | 0.601 | 0.670 | |||||||||
Paris | 0.585 | 0.579 | 0.627 | 0.686 |