Bridging epidemiology with population genetics in a low incidence MSM-driven HIV-1 subtype B epidemic in Central Europe

Table 3 Times to the most recent common ancestor (tMRCAs) of 8 major clusters of Slovenian sequences obtained by employing Bayesian analysis on two different sets of sequences; set comprised of all Slovenian subtype B sequences and separate sets of only clustered sequences

	Full analysis			Analysis based on cluster strains
	Mean	Median	95% HPD	Mean	Median	95% HPD	Sampling dates	Time depths²
Cluster 1	1990.6	1991.4	1987.1–1996.1	1998.0	1998.3	1995.2–2000.4	2001.42–2012.73	22.13
Cluster 2	1986.9	1988.1	1983.1–1992.9	1990.0	1990.8	1980.1–1998.1	2003.06–2012.68	25.78
Cluster 3	1999.1	1999.9	1995.4–2002.9				2005.46–2012.74	13.64
Cluster 4	1991.4	1992.2	1987.0–1998.1				2002.40–2012.64	21.24
Cluster 5 ¹	1990.6	1991.1	1987.1 – 1995.6				2000.68–2009.47	18.87
Cluster 6	1986.1	1987.4	1981.4–1990.5				2000.25–2012.92	26.82
Cluster 7	2003.0	2003.6	2000.8–2005.3				2005.32–2012.45	9.45
Cluster 8	2001.2	2001.7	1999.0–2003.4				2004.01–2011.77	10.57

Note: The analysis was performed in duplicate by using a relaxed clock model with uncorrelated lognormal distribution and Bayesian skyline coalescent model.
¹numbers are shown for the newly defined Cluster 5 with only 10 patients.
²time depths are shown in years and calculated according to the mean years of MRCA obtained in the full analysis.
HPD = highest posterior density.

ISSN: 1471-2334