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Table 2 Average final number of cases, computed for realizations leading to an attack rate higher than 10 % , for different mitigation strategies and for various closure-triggering thresholds and closure durations

From: Mitigation of infectious disease at school: targeted class closure vs school closure

Closure strategy Targeted Targeted Whole
(threshold, duration) class grade school
No closure 179 [149,203] 179 [149,203] 179 [149,203]
3, 24 h 162 [122,199] 166 [112,196] 170 [151,202]
3, 48 h 135 [48,197] 138 [40,188] 162 [43,199]
3, 72 h 101 [33,186] 103 [30,177] 146 [28,198]
3, 96 h 92 [29,184] 88 [26,169] 120 [27,195]
3, 120 h 75 [29,170] 62 [25,163] 67 [26,192]
3, 144 h 71 [26,168] 58 [24,161] 55 [25,180]
2, 24 h 165 [91,195] 170 [141,199] 173 [139,198]
2, 48 h 124 [32,179] 142 [35,191] 170 [62,199]
2, 72 h 96 [30,170] 113 [29,180] 149 [48,201]
2, 96 h 75 [27,152] 94 [26,184] 141 [31,196]
2, 120 h 69 [25,140] 73 [25,181] 133 [30,195]
2, 144 h 51 [27,111] 52 [26,138] 57 [25,192]
  1. The baseline case given by the simple isolation of symptomatic children is indicated as “No closure”. In square brackets we provide the 5th and 95th percentiles. Parameter values: β = 3.5 · 10-4 s -1, β com = 2.8 · 10-9 s -1, 1/ μ = 2 days, 1/ γ = 4 days, p A = 1/3.