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Table 2 Average final number of cases, computed for realizations leading to an attack rate higher than 10 % , for different mitigation strategies and for various closure-triggering thresholds and closure durations

From: Mitigation of infectious disease at school: targeted class closure vs school closure

Closure strategy

Targeted

Targeted

Whole

(threshold, duration)

class

grade

school

No closure

179 [149,203]

179 [149,203]

179 [149,203]

3, 24 h

162 [122,199]

166 [112,196]

170 [151,202]

3, 48 h

135 [48,197]

138 [40,188]

162 [43,199]

3, 72 h

101 [33,186]

103 [30,177]

146 [28,198]

3, 96 h

92 [29,184]

88 [26,169]

120 [27,195]

3, 120 h

75 [29,170]

62 [25,163]

67 [26,192]

3, 144 h

71 [26,168]

58 [24,161]

55 [25,180]

2, 24 h

165 [91,195]

170 [141,199]

173 [139,198]

2, 48 h

124 [32,179]

142 [35,191]

170 [62,199]

2, 72 h

96 [30,170]

113 [29,180]

149 [48,201]

2, 96 h

75 [27,152]

94 [26,184]

141 [31,196]

2, 120 h

69 [25,140]

73 [25,181]

133 [30,195]

2, 144 h

51 [27,111]

52 [26,138]

57 [25,192]

  1. The baseline case given by the simple isolation of symptomatic children is indicated as “No closure”. In square brackets we provide the 5th and 95th percentiles. Parameter values: β = 3.5 · 10-4 s -1, β com = 2.8 · 10-9 s -1, 1/ μ = 2 days, 1/ γ = 4 days, p A = 1/3.