Table 4 Benefit Variables used in model with 'baseline', 'low' and 'high' values, and sources

Percentage of pregnant women unscreened through existing practice

70% (50%, 90%)

[17, 18]

Annual population pregnant women

1522 (1142, 1903)

[20]

Percentage pregnant women that accept screening – 14 wks gestation

95% (63%, 100%)

[17, 46–48]

Percentage pregnant women that accept screening – onset of labour

85% (67%, 100%)

[17, 49, 50]

Percentage pregnant women that accept screening – infant at birth

90% (67%, 100%)

[17, 50]

Percentage pregnant women that accept ART – 14 wks gestation

75% (50%, 95%)

[18, 51]

Percentage pregnant women that accept ART – onset of labour

75% (50%, 100%)

[18]

Percentage of pregnant women that accept ART – infant after birth

75% (50%, 100%)

[18]

Prevalence of undiagnosed HIV in women of childbearing age

4.9% (3.6%, 6.1%)

[18, 52]

Additional percentage of screened women who hadn't seroconverted at time of first test or contracted HIV since first test

2% (0%, 6%)

[17, 25, 50]

% of women who seek antenatal care prior by 14 weeks gestation

63.4% (47.6%, 79.4%)

[17, 20]

% of women who seek antenatal care after 14 weeks and present to hospital in sufficient time prior to delivery

25.2% (19.5%, 32.5%)

[17, 20]

Termination of pregnancy in diagnosed HIV+ mothers

1% (0%, 5%)

[17, 53]

TR without treatment – no breastfeeding

28% (16%, 33%)

[2–4]

TR with treatment from 14 wks gestation- no breastfeeding

2% (1%, 7.3%)

[4, 5, 54]

TR with treatment from onset of labour – no breastfeeding

10% (5%, 15%)

[4, 14, 15]

TR with treatment within 24 hours birth – no breastfeeding

13.1% (8.9%, 17.3%)

[15, 16]

Life Expectancy HIV- infant

77.74 (58, 97)

[20]

Time to Diagnosis of HIV+ infant without screening (months)

5.2 (3.9. 13.0)

[55, 56]

HIV+ infant – % FP

25% (5%, 40%)

[22–24]

HIV + infant – Time in HIV phase NP (screened) (yrs)

8.5 (5.7, 13.5)

[57]

HIV+ infant – Time in HIV phase NP (unscreened) (yrs)

6.2 (4.7, 8.5)

[57]

HIV+ infant – Time in HIV phase FP (screened) (yrs)

0.75 (0.25, 1.25)

[18, 57]

HIV+ infant – Time in HIV phase FP (unscreened) (yrs)

0.5 (0.0, 1.0)

[18, 57]

HIV+ infant – Time in AIDS phase NP (screened) (yrs)

4.6 (1.7, 10.3)

[18, 57]

HIV+ infant – Time in AIDS phase NP (unscreened) (yrs)

3.9 (1.5, 9.7)

[57]

HIV+ infant – Time in AIDS phase FP (screened) (yrs)

0.75 (0.25, 1.25)

[22–24]

HIV+ infant – Time in AIDS phase FP (unscreened) (yrs)

0.5 (0.0, 1.0)

[18, 22–24]

Life expectancy HIV+ mother from diagnosis (normal diagnosis path) (years)

12.0 (9.8, 18.2)

[58]

Life expectancy HIV+ mother from diagnosis (early diagnosis due to screening) (years)

12.70 (9.9, 15.0)

[58]

Time to diagnosis of HIV+ mother without screening (months)

20.4 (15.0, 25.5)

[58]