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Table 3 Predicted annual incidence of reported cases, with and without including the cohort effect in the dynamic model.

From: Cohort effects in dynamic models and their impact on vaccination programmes: an example from Hepatitis A

  Average annual reported incidence (cases per 100,000 per year)
  Over 20 years (2006–2025) Over 50 years (2006–2055)
  Without cohort effect With cohort effect Without cohort effect With cohort effect
Age Class Vaccination No vaccination Vaccination No vaccination Vaccination No vaccination Vaccination No vaccination
0–4 6.4 10.3 5.6 7.9 6.2 10.3 5.4 7.6
5–9 7.0 21.8 6.2 16.9 5.8 21.8 5.1 16.3
10–19 6.9 13.8 5.9 10.3 5.0 13.8 4.3 10.0
20–29 9.4 14.8 7.8 10.6 6.6 14.8 5.5 10.2
30–39 10.1 16.1 8.3 11.3 8.1 16.1 6.5 10.8
40–59 7.0 11.3 4.8 6.7 6.3 11.3 4.7 7.0
60+ 7.3 12.2 2.7 3.9 6.8 12.2 3.8 5.7
All Ages 7.8 13.8 5.8 9.0 6.4 13.8 5.0 9.1