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Table 2 Posterior mean and 95% credible interval of transmission parameters of S. pneumoniae according to serotype inclusion in the vaccine. Transmission parameters consist of the mean duration of carriage μ, the child to child transmission rate β and the Secondary Attack Rate (SAR).

From: S. pneumoniaetransmission according to inclusion in conjugate vaccines: Bayesian analysis of a longitudinal follow-up in schools

  Vaccine serotype* Non-vaccine serotype† Ratio
  Mean 95% CI‡ Mean 95% CI‡ Mean 95% CI‡
μ (days) 23 21, 25 22 20, 24 1.06 0.94, 1.18
β (% day-1) 4.6 4.2, 5.0 5.1 4.5, 5.6 0.91 0.80, 1.05
SAR (%)       
n = 30 § 3.4 3.2, 3.7 3.6 3.3, 3.8 0.97 0.88, 1.06
n = 50 § 2.1 1.9, 2.2 2.2 2.0, 2.3 0.97 0.88, 1.06
n = 100 § 1.1 1.0, 1.2 1.1 1.0, 1.2 0.97 0.88, 1.06
  1. * Serotypes 6B, 9V, 14, 18C, 19F, 23F which are included in the 7-valent conjugate vaccine were selected for analysis (at least 30 positive swabs). Vaccine serotype 4 was not selected for analysis because it was isolated in 10 swabs only.
  2. † Serotypes 6A, 3, 19A, 11A, 15A, 15B, 23A, 17F, 10A, 9L were selected for analysis.
  3. ‡ CI, credible interval.
  4. §n, size of the school.