Group A (acute evolution – from the 1987 to 1989 cohort, the natural history of the disease), survival rate: 18-24 months initially, then 4-5 years, received only palliative care and medical assistance, causes of death: opportunistic infections and high mortality.
Group B contains two segments: the 1987-1989 cohort and patients infected by other routes: heterosexual, IDU, MSM, MTCT), with chronic evolution between 2008 – June 30, 2013, patients undergoing antiretroviral therapy 10-11 years (2008), 12-13 (2008), -18 years (2013), both derived from cohort and newly detected, average survival 10 to 11 years, reduced mortality, predominantly through TB or pneumocystosis, polyexperimented patients, exhausted immunological or non-adherent status. There are long-term survivors (slow progressors and non- progressors), which completed, part of them, the natural history of the first group, provided they did not need treatment, because of a less influenced immunological status.
There are four models of evolution: group A – acute and over-acute evolution – fast progressors (mortality rate increased, duration of survival of 4-5 years), group B – chronic evolution – late presenters, slow progressors, non-progressors – the 3 new "patterns" are correlated with an increase in average life expectancy to 10.5-11 years, due to, in the overwhelming majority, the therapy and the natural history). We estimate an evolution of the HIV-AIDS epidemic in Constanța County, on an average of 7-9 years, in the same parameters, which were characterized by the current study.