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Table 3 Mean estimated day of virus introduction into the barn, across 100 simulated testing observations

From: Surveillance of low pathogenic novel H7N9 avian influenza in commercial poultry barns: detection of outbreaks and estimation of virus introduction time

Day of entry R 0 Weekly sampling 2 weekly sampling 4 weekly sampling
Day 0     
  10 0.0 (-0.6, 0.5) 0.1 (-0.7, 0.7) 0.0 (-2.3, 1.7)
  7 0.0 (-0.7, 0.6) 0.0 (-1.1, 0.9) -0.1 (-1.7, 1.5)
  5 0.0 (-0.80, 0.9) -0.3 (-1.8, 1.1) -1.1 (-3.0, 1.1)
  3 0.1 (-1.4, 1.4) 0.0 (-2.3, 1.8) -0.2 (-2.8, 2.5)
  3 2nd cluster NA NA 37.6 (26.7 - 40.0)
Day 7     
  10 7.0 (6.3, 7.5) 7.3 (6.0, 8.5) 7.2 (5.8, 8.6)
  7 7.0 (6.4, 7.6) 6.0 (4.9, 7.3) 2.6 (1.0, 4.5)
  5 7.0 (6.1, 7.9) 7.0 (5.9, 7.9) 7.2 (5.3, 8.8)
  3 6.9 (5.3, 8.3) 7.0 (5.5, 9.0) 6.6 (4.0, 9.5)
  3 2nd cluster NA NA 21.6 (17.1, 25.3)
Day 20     
  10 20.0 (19.4, 20.4) 20.2 (18.9, 21.5) 18.3 (16.0, 21.0)
  10 2nd cluster NA NA 46.6 (44.1, 50.0)
  7 20.0 (19.4, 20.9) 19.1 (17.8, 20.3) 18.0 (15.3, 21.3)
  7 2nd cluster NA NA 43.3 (40.5, 46.0)
  5 20.0 (18.9, 20.7) 20.0 (19.0, 20.9) 19.5 (18.1, 20.8)
  5 2nd cluster NA NA 34.5 (32.6, 36.6)
  3 20.1 (18.1, 22.2) 20.1 (17.7, 23.2) 19.7 (15.4, 23.4)
Day 40     
  10 40.0 (39.4, 40.7) 40.0 (39.9, 40.8) 36.0 (34.7, 37.1)
  10 2nd cluster NA NA -9.56 (-10.0, -8.5)
  7 39.8 (38.1, 42.0) 40.0 (38.5, 41.5) 40.0 (38.5, 41.4)
  5 40.0 (36.7, 42.8) 39.7 (36.5, 42.8) 40.1 (36.7, 45.2)
  5 2nd cluster NA NA 13.3 (11.6, 15.0)
  3 37.6 (30.2, 43.7) 35.0 (28.2, 42.7) 33.5 (28.0, 40.8)
  1. Mean lower and upper 95% confidence intervals for each estimate are indicated in brackets. The second optima that was observed with reduced sampling is referred to as 2nd cluster.