Table 3 Multivariate regression models of excess death rates associated with the spring, fall, and winter pandemic waves as a function of socio-demographic variables across provinces of Spain
From: Spatial-temporal excess mortality patterns of the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic in Spain
Spring wave | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Predictor | Coefficient | Standard error | P value | RMSE | Intercept | Predictor is in final model? |
Baseline mortality rates | 0.884 | 0.073 | <0.001 | 1.31 | −0.7852 | Yes |
Latitude | −0.017 | 0.074 | 0.822 | No | ||
Longitude | −0.041 | 0.058 | 0.478 | No | ||
Population density | 0.004 | 0.006 | 0.505 | No | ||
Population size | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.764 | No | ||
Proportion of school age children 5–15 years | 7.336 | 9.547 | 0.446 | No | ||
Infant mortality rates | 0.002 | 0.002 | 0.168 | No | ||
Urbanization | 0.049 | 0.015 | 0.002 | Yes | ||
Fall wave | ||||||
Predictor | Coefficient | Standard error | P value | RMSE | Intercept | Predictor is in final model? |
Baseline mortality rates | −0.68 | 1.55 | 0.67 | 29.8 | −315.1 | No |
Latitude | 7.02 | 1.61 | <0.001 | Yes | ||
Longitude | 0.21 | 1.76 | 0.90 | No | ||
Population density | −0.20 | 0.11 | 0.08 | Yes | ||
Population size | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 | No | ||
Proportion of school age children 5–15 years | 403.45 | 205.47 | 0.06 | Yes | ||
Infant mortality rates | −0.02 | 0.03 | 0.60 | No | ||
Urbanization | −0.21 | 0.46 | 0.65 | No | ||
Winter wave | ||||||
Predictor | Coefficient | Standard error | P value | RMSE | Intercept | Predictor is in final model? |
Baseline mortality rates | 0.754 | 0.048 | <0.001 | 1.86 | −2.5 | Yes |
Latitude | −0.121 | 0.109 | 0.275 | No | ||
Longitude | −0.048 | 0.085 | 0.573 | No | ||
Population density | 0.005 | 0.008 | 0.548 | No | ||
Population size | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.462 | No | ||
Proportion of school age children 5–15 years | −14.092 | 12.843 | 0.278 | No | ||
Infant mortality rates | 0.005 | 0.002 | 0.014 | Yes | ||
Urbanization | 0.009 | 0.022 | 0.699 | No | ||
Cumulative excess rates | ||||||
Predictor | Coefficient | Standard error | P value | RMSE | Intercept | Predictor is in final model? |
Baseline mortality rates | −0.579 | 0.563 | 0.310 | No | ||
Latitude | 7.082 | 1.528 | <0.001 | Yes | ||
Longitude | 0.050 | 1.674 | 0.976 | No | ||
Population density | −0.196 | 0.105 | 0.070 | Yes | ||
Population size | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.380 | No | ||
Proportion of school age children 5–15 years | 395.934 | 195.292 | 0.049 | Yes | ||
Infant mortality rates | −0.001 | 0.033 | 0.972 | No | ||
Urbanization | −0.090 | 0.439 | 0.839 | No | ||