Table 3 Possible Prediction Rules for Oesophageal Varices

Single clinical condition:

Splenomegaly

92 (83–97)

85 (68–94)

94 (85–98)

82 (64–92)

Live within 5 km of the lake

83 (72–90)

70 (52–84)

87 (76–93)

63 (46–78)

Water sourced from lake

52 (40–63)

100 (88–100)

100 (90–100)

47 (34–59)

Ascites

50 (38–62)

89 (72–96)

91 (78–97)

43 (31–56)

History of praziquantel

50 (38–62)

81 (63–92)

86 (72–94)

41 (29–54)

Fisherman

25 (16–37)

100 (88–100)

100 (81–100)

36 (26–47)

Ultrasound single condition:

Portal vein diameter ≥ 13 mm

95 (87–98)

93 (77–98)

97 (89–99)

89 (73–96)

Combinations of clinical conditions:

Splenomegaly or water sourced from lake

94 (85–98)

85 (68–94)

94 (85–98)

85 (68–94)

Combinations of clinical and ultrasound conditions:

Portal vein diameter ≥ 13 mm or water sourced from lake

98 (92–100)

93 (77–98)

97 (89–99)

96 (81–99)

Portal vein diameter ≥ 13 mm or water sourced from lake or ascites

98 (92–100)

89 (72–96)

95 (87–98)

96 (80–99)

Portal vein diameter ≥ 13 mm or fisherman

95 (87–98)

93 (77–98)

97 (89–99)

89 (73–96)

Portal vein diameter ≥ 13 mm or ascites

95 (87–98)

89 (72–96)

95 (87–98)

89 (72–96)