Figure 3

Global Moran’s I and Spatial Dependence in HIV Prevalence, 1994-2010. The black bars in Figure 3 show global Moran’s I values in years for which the statistic (and spatial autocorrelation) was statistically significant at p ≤ 0.01, the dark grey at p = 0.05 or p = 0.10), and the light grey bars for years with no statistical significance. The positive Moran’s I values indicate positive autocorrelation, i.e., HIV prevalence values at neighboring locations were similarly high or low, while negative values indicate negative autocorrelation with high prevalence values next to low ones.