Table 3 Clinical inputs
A. Annual transition probabilities (source) | Baseline (Range) | PSA Distribution (Parameter1, parameter2) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Fibrosis progression | Â | Â | ||
  F0 to F1 [29] | 0.117 (0.104–0.130) | Beta (274.98, 2075.30) | ||
  F1 to F2 [29] | 0.085 (0.075–0.096) | Beta (210.06, 2261.18) | ||
  F2 to F3 [29] | 0.120 (0.109–0.133) | Beta (288.05, 2112.38) | ||
  F3 to F4/Compensated Cirrhosis [29] | 0.116 (0.104–0.129) | Beta (270.61, 2062.22) | ||
0.029 (0.020–0.083) | Beta (16.67, 558.01) | |||
0.028 (0.010–0.044) | Beta (22.97, 791.67) | |||
  DC to HCC [39] | 0.068 (0.030–0.083) | Beta (10.88, 149.15) | ||
  SVR, F4 to DC [28] | 0.008 | Beta (6348.80, 787251.20) | ||
  SVR, F4 to HCC [28] | 0.005 | Beta (2487.50, 495012.50) | ||
Probability of Receiving a Liver Transplant | Â | |||
0.023 (0.010–0.062) | Beta (1.31, 55.44) | |||
  HCC [43] | 0.040 (0.000–0.140) | Beta (3.88, 93.09) | ||
Mortality Rates | Â | Â | ||
  All-Cause mortality [44] | age/gender specific | NA | ||
  Liver-related mortality associated with DC, first year [39] | 0.142 (0.065–0.190) | Beta (68.42, 307.52) | ||
  Liver-related mortality associated with DC, subsequent years [39] | 0.112 (0.065–0.190) | Beta (28.13, 223.02) | ||
  Liver-related mortality associated with HCC [30] | 0.427 (0.330–0.860) | Beta (263.82, 354.02) | ||
  Mortality associated with liver transplant [45] | 0.116 (0.060–0.420) | Beta (30.04, 228.91) | ||
  Mortality associated with post-liver transplant [45] | 0.044 (0.024–0.110) | Beta (4.67, 101.55) | ||
B. Economic and Health Related Utilities Inputs | ||||
| Â | Weekly Costs ($) | Utilities | ||
| Â | Baseline (Range) | Distribution | Baseline (Range) | Distribution |
Pegylated Interferon [46] | 588 | NA | NA | NA |
Ribavirin [46] | 309 | NA | NA | NA |
Boceprevir [46] | 1,100 | NA | NA | NA |
Erythropoietin [46] | 875 | NA | NA | NA |
Monitoring Costs [26] | 64 | NA | NA | NA |
AV Therapy, No Anemia [24] | NA | NA | 0.90 (0.84, 0.96) | NA |
AV Therapy, Anemia [47] | NA | NA | 0.83 (0.75, 0.97) | NA |
US population norms [48] | NA | NA | Age/gender specific | Beta |
| Â | Annual Costs ($) | Utilities | ||
SVR, F0–F4 | 0 (0, 509) | NA | 1.00 (0.92, 1.00) | Beta (6368.04, 15.96) |
678 (509, 848) | Gamma (61.47, 11.03) | 0.93 (0.84, 1.00) | Beta (47.47, 3.57) | |
687 (515, 859) | Gamma (61.47, 11.17) | 0.93 (0.84, 1.00) | Beta (47.47, 3.57) | |
1,394 (1045, 1742) | Gamma (61.47, 22.67) | 0.93 (0.84, 1.00) | Beta (47.47, 3.57) | |
1,626 (1220, 2033) | Gamma (61.47, 26.46) | 0.90 (0.81, 1.00) | Beta (31.12, 3.46) | |
18,064 (13548, 22580) | Gamma (61.47, 293.89) | 0.80 (0.57, 1.00) | Beta (12.29, 3.07) | |
33,218 (24914, 41523) | Gamma (61.47, 540.44) | 0.79 (0.54, 1.00) | Beta (11.42, 3.03) | |
95,971 (71979, 119964) | Gamma (61.47, 1561.38) | 0.84 (0.77, 0.93) | Beta (53.54, 10.20) | |
25,208 (18906, 31510) | Gamma (61.47, 410.11) | 0.84 (0.77, 0.93) | Beta (53.54, 10.20) | |