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Table 3 Clinical inputs

From: Boceprevir for previously untreated patients with chronic hepatitis C Genotype 1 infection: a US-based cost-effectiveness modeling study

A. Annual transition probabilities (source) Baseline (Range) PSA Distribution (Parameter1, parameter2)
Fibrosis progression   
  F0 to F1 [29] 0.117 (0.104–0.130) Beta (274.98, 2075.30)
  F1 to F2 [29] 0.085 (0.075–0.096) Beta (210.06, 2261.18)
  F2 to F3 [29] 0.120 (0.109–0.133) Beta (288.05, 2112.38)
  F3 to F4/Compensated Cirrhosis [29] 0.116 (0.104–0.129) Beta (270.61, 2062.22)
  F4 to DC [3034] 0.029 (0.020–0.083) Beta (16.67, 558.01)
  F4 to HCC [3038] 0.028 (0.010–0.044) Beta (22.97, 791.67)
  DC to HCC [39] 0.068 (0.030–0.083) Beta (10.88, 149.15)
  SVR, F4 to DC [28] 0.008 Beta (6348.80, 787251.20)
  SVR, F4 to HCC [28] 0.005 Beta (2487.50, 495012.50)
Probability of Receiving a Liver Transplant  
  DC [4042] 0.023 (0.010–0.062) Beta (1.31, 55.44)
  HCC [43] 0.040 (0.000–0.140) Beta (3.88, 93.09)
Mortality Rates   
  All-Cause mortality [44] age/gender specific NA
  Liver-related mortality associated with DC, first year [39] 0.142 (0.065–0.190) Beta (68.42, 307.52)
  Liver-related mortality associated with DC, subsequent years [39] 0.112 (0.065–0.190) Beta (28.13, 223.02)
  Liver-related mortality associated with HCC [30] 0.427 (0.330–0.860) Beta (263.82, 354.02)
  Mortality associated with liver transplant [45] 0.116 (0.060–0.420) Beta (30.04, 228.91)
  Mortality associated with post-liver transplant [45] 0.044 (0.024–0.110) Beta (4.67, 101.55)
B. Economic and Health Related Utilities Inputs
  Weekly Costs ($) Utilities
  Baseline (Range) Distribution Baseline (Range) Distribution
Pegylated Interferon [46] 588 NA NA NA
Ribavirin [46] 309 NA NA NA
Boceprevir [46] 1,100 NA NA NA
Erythropoietin [46] 875 NA NA NA
Monitoring Costs [26] 64 NA NA NA
AV Therapy, No Anemia [24] NA NA 0.90 (0.84, 0.96) NA
AV Therapy, Anemia [47] NA NA 0.83 (0.75, 0.97) NA
US population norms [48] NA NA Age/gender specific Beta
  Annual Costs ($) Utilities
SVR, F0–F4 0 (0, 509) NA 1.00 (0.92, 1.00) Beta (6368.04, 15.96)
F0, F1 [4951] 678 (509, 848) Gamma (61.47, 11.03) 0.93 (0.84, 1.00) Beta (47.47, 3.57)
F2 [4951] 687 (515, 859) Gamma (61.47, 11.17) 0.93 (0.84, 1.00) Beta (47.47, 3.57)
F3 [4951] 1,394 (1045, 1742) Gamma (61.47, 22.67) 0.93 (0.84, 1.00) Beta (47.47, 3.57)
F4 [49, 51] 1,626 (1220, 2033) Gamma (61.47, 26.46) 0.90 (0.81, 1.00) Beta (31.12, 3.46)
DC [49, 51] 18,064 (13548, 22580) Gamma (61.47, 293.89) 0.80 (0.57, 1.00) Beta (12.29, 3.07)
HCC [49, 51] 33,218 (24914, 41523) Gamma (61.47, 540.44) 0.79 (0.54, 1.00) Beta (11.42, 3.03)
Liver Transplantation [49, 51] 95,971 (71979, 119964) Gamma (61.47, 1561.38) 0.84 (0.77, 0.93) Beta (53.54, 10.20)
Post-Liver Transplantation [49, 51] 25,208 (18906, 31510) Gamma (61.47, 410.11) 0.84 (0.77, 0.93) Beta (53.54, 10.20)
  1. SVR – sustained virologic response; F0 – no fibrosis; F1 – portal fibrosis without septa; F2 – portal fibrosis with few septa; F3 – numerous septa without cirrhosis; F4 – cirrhosis; DC – decompensated cirrhosis; HCC – hepatocellular carcinoma; AV therapy – antiviral therapy.