Onset of a pandemic: characterizing the initial phase of the swine flu (H1N1) epidemic in Israel

BMC Infectious Diseases

Table 4 Values of AICc for models with different variables explaining spatial distribution of influenza in sub-districts of Israel

Model parameters	K	AICc	Delta AICc	AICc weights	Cumulative weights	P-value	Adjusted R²
Built area + income	4	1.16	0	0.55	0.55	0.000145	0.7327
Built area	3	3.81	2.66	0.15	0.7	0.000299	0.6201
Built area + income + household size	5	5.48	4.32	0.06	0.76	0.000676	0.7151
Built area + income + commuting	5	5.82	4.67	0.05	0.82	0.000766	0.7084
Built area + commuting	4	6.33	5.17	0.04	0.86	0.001147	0.6226
Commuting	3	6.75	5.59	0.03	0.89	0.001123	0.5378
Income + commuting	4	7.19	6.03	0.03	0.92	0.001614	0.6004
Built area + household size	4	7.59	6.43	0.02	0.94	0.001897	0.5895
Household size + commuting	4	8.11	6.95	0.02	0.96	0.002332	0.5752
Income	3	8.48	7.32	0.01	0.97	0.00247	0.4814
Income + household size	4	9.02	7.86	0.01	0.98	0.003359	0.5485
Income + household size + commuting	5	9.98	8.83	0.01	0.99	0.003381	0.6152
Built area + household size + commuting	5	10.97	9.81	0	0.99	0.004787	0.5892
Built area + income + household size + commuting	6	11.25	10.09	0	1	0.002689	0.6879
Household size	3	12.45	11.29	0	1	0.01569	0.3242
Temp	3	15.77	14.61	0	1	0.0798	0.1572
Built area + income + household size + commuting + temp	7	18.24	17.08	0	1	0.007742	0.6648

The analysis was conducted on 15 subdistricts with combinations of five explanatory variables (see text). The table displays the combination of the models chosen, the number of parameter in each model (K), and their appropriate AICc, Delta AICc, AICc weights, cumulative weights, P-values and adjusted R² values.

ISSN: 1471-2334