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Table 3 Model parameter estimates for the Richards model using (I) the daily number of classes suspended and (II) the daily number of schools with at least one class suspended due to the 325 policy in Taiwan during September 9, 2009 to January 20, 2010; the estimate of effective reproduction number R are obtained by using estimate of T from pH1N1 data of Mexico: T = 1.91 (95% CI: 1.30-2.71) [25].

From: Transmissibility and temporal changes of 2009 pH1N1 pandemic during summer and fall/winter waves

Time Period Turning point ti
(95% C.I.)
Growth rate r
(95% C.I.)
Max case number K
(95% C.I.)
Reproduction number R
(I) 50.711
(49.96, 51.46)
0.05
(0.053, 0.057)
46104
(45797, 46410)
1.11
(1.108, 1.112)
(II) 48.812
(47.73, 49.88)
0.05
(0.050, 0.055)
25968
(25755, 26182)
1.11
(1.103, 1.108)
  1. *Max (0, lower bound).
  2. 150.71 school days after September 9 corresponds to November 19 as the turning point.
  3. 248.81 school days after September 9 corresponds to November 17 as the turning point.