Figure 7

Spatiotemporal dynamics of the AI outbreaks in South Korea in 2008 are shown at 4, 12, 20, 28, 36 and 42 days after the first outbreak. Colors represents the infection intensity from low (yellow) to high (purple) for AI spreading including culling and infected poultry farms. A, Actual data for the 2008 AI epidemic from the Ministry of Food, Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, South Korea are shown. B, Simulation in the absence of a containment strategy is shown. C, Simulation from our model for parameter values of λ = 0.293 and τ = 0.429, which were selected to mimic the South Korea containment strategy is shown. D, Simulation with an estimated λ value of λ = 0.465 and τ = 0.429 is shown. The columns correspond to the times indicated. All simulation results are averaged over 100 simulations of the model.