|
Initial conditions
|
|
Origin of pandemic
|
Hanoi
|
Hanoi
|
|
Arrival of infection in country
|
Simulating global pandemic
|
Provided by GLEaM
|
|
Transmission dynamics (common to both models)
|
|
Basic reproductive ratio, R
0
|
1.9 [1.5, 2.3]
|
|
Average latency period, ε-1
|
2.0 days
|
|
Average infectious period, μ-1
|
3.0 days
|
|
Probability of asymptomatic disease, p
a
|
33%
|
|
Reduction in disease transmission due to asymptomatic disease, r
β
|
50%
|
|
Mobility
|
|
Long/short range travel
|
Explicit air travel with 70% daily average occupancy of flights.
|
Commuting model used for geographically locating schools and workplaces.
|
| |
Implicit commuting through effective force of infection with τ = 3 day-1 return rate and real commuting fluxes.
|
Implicit within country through random contacts in the general population.
|
|
Impact of symptomatic disease on individual behaviour
|
Stop travelling when ill with probability 1-p
t
= 50%
|
Reduction in school and work attendance, ranging from 90% in daycare centers to 50% in workplaces.
|
