Table 3 False recent seroconverters and protective effect of MC on HIV incidence as calculated using BED and AI separately

Cut-off

0.325

0.733

0.900

1.51

1.89

2.27

Window period

3m (91.5d)

6m (183d)

9m (274d)

12m (366d)

15m (457d)

18m (549d)

False LTS (%)

0/3 (0)

1/12 (8.3)

5/21 (23.8)

5/32 (16)

2/34 (5.9)

3/47 (6.4)

95% CI

0 to 0.53

0.5 to 32

9.6 to 44

6 to 30

1 to 17

2 to 16

Observed false RS (%)

1/124 (0.8)

6/124 (4.8)

8/124 (6.5)

NC

NC

NC

95% CI

0.05 to 3.8

1.9 to 9.6

3 to 12

¹Calculated false RS (%)

2.1

4.3

6.4

8.5

10.7

12.8

Tested RSs

6 - 10

12 - 27

15-30

23 - 48

33 - 62

42 - 79

Uncorrected effect (%)

43

58

53

55

49

50

95% CI

-57 to 84

19 to 80

13 to 77

26 to 75

23 to 67

27 to 66

²Correction

28

29

34

30

26

24

24

18

24

20

20

18

25

21

28

23

22

21

Corrected effect (%)

46

63

59

60

53

53

95% CI

NC

22 to 88

9 to 86

25 to 80

25 to 73

30 to 70

AI

Cut-off

31.6

80.5

90.0

94.0

96.0

NC

Window period

3m (91.5d)

6m (183d)

9m (274d)

12m (366d)

15m (457d)

18m (549d)

False LTS (%)

0/3 (0)

1/12 (8.3)

3/21 (14)

4/32 (13)

4/34 (12)

NC

95% CI

0 to 53

0.5 to 32

4 to 33

4 to 27

3.8 to 25

Observed false RS (%)

0/124 (0)

3/124 (2.4)

15/124 (12)

NC

NC

NC

95% CI

0 to 2.4

0.6 to 6.2

7 to 19

¹Calculated false RS (%)

2.9

5.9

8.8

11.8

14.7

NC

Tested RSs

NC

3 - 11

10 - 19

18-31

26 - 44

33 - 62

Uncorrected effect (%)

74

50

45

44

50

NC

95% CI

19 to 100

-6 to 78

3 to 72

17 to 71

21 to 69

²Correction

NC

77

47

39

36

36

30

35

32

31

27

40

39

35

33

30

Corrected effect (%)

92

59

50

49

55

NC

95% CI

14 to 100

-14 to 100

-13 to 83

4 to 78

25 to 77