Fig. 3

a. Prevalence of ZIKV at the time of detection as a function of the fraction of pregnancies that are affected by ZIKV. One hundred points are sampled (by LHS maximin criteria) from parameter values in Table 1 as well as z, assuming all parameters but d follow uniform distributions, and d ~ N(μ = 50,σ = 3). For every point, 100 subsequent points are selected randomly from the probability density function of the time until detection, and the prevalence at each of the 10,000 points is computed for each population size. These data points are summarized in boxplots. Note that the upper whisker of the boxplot for z = 0.01 with 2 million people extends to about 14,000 but is not shown in its entirety. For z = 0.01 with 0.25, 0.5 and 1 million people, and for z = 0.05 with 0.25 million people, we omit parameter sets in the LH for which microcephaly may not occur during an epidemic. b. Using the same sampling procedure as in a, total cases by the time of detection in the second region are determined as a function of z, and results are also presented in boxplots. Note that the upper whisker of the boxplot for z = 0.01 with 2 million people extends to about 70,000 but is not shown in its entirety. In both a and b, upper whiskers for all populations with z = 0.01 are not completely shown, and outliers are not plotted