Reducing disease burden in an influenza pandemic by targeted delivery of neuraminidase inhibitors: mathematical models in the Australian context

Table 2 Pandemic influenza scenarios, identified by number (“#”)

#	Transmissibility	R ₀	Severity	η	α _m	Mean CAR	Mean AR
1	Low	1.05–1.20	Low	10 ⁻⁴–10 ⁻³	9.8 %	2.0 %	20.4 %
2	High	1.40–1.70	Low	10 ⁻⁴–10 ⁻³	9.8 %	6.0 %	61.0 %
3	Low	1.05–1.20	Moderate	10 ⁻³–10 ⁻²	11.6 %	2.3 %	20.4 %
4	Moderate	1.20–1.40	Moderate	10 ⁻³–10 ⁻²	11.6 %	4.8 %	42.0 %
5	High	1.40–1.70	Moderate	10 ⁻³–10 ⁻²	11.6 %	7.0 %	61.0 %
6	Low	1.05–1.20	High	10 ⁻²–10 ⁻¹	29.8 %	5.7 %	20.4 %
7	High	1.40–1.70	High	10 ⁻²–10 ⁻¹	29.8 %	17.1 %	61.0 %

Note that low transmissibility represents low-level epidemic activity. η is the proportion of infections that, in the absence of early treatment, will require hospitalisation (“severe cases”). α_m is the proportion of non-severe infections that present to outpatient settings (“mild cases”). The Clinical Attack Rate (CAR) is the proportion of the population that present due to pandemic influenza infection; the Attack Rate (AR) is the proportion of the population infected during the pandemic.

ISSN: 1471-2334