Table 2 Goodness-of-fit and diagnostic performance of risk models for predicting importation of the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS)
From: Predicting the international spread of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS)
ID | Model | Number of parameters | AIC1 | AUC2 | Sensitivity (%) | Specificity (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Effective distance only | 1 | 464.1 | 0.95 (0.54,1.00) | 100.0 (88.3, 100.0) | 79.6 (74.0, 85.2) |
2 | Effective distance + religion | 2 | 461.2 | 0.87 (0.46, 1.00) | 100.0 (88.3, 100.0) | 69.2 (62.8, 75.5) |
3 | Effective distance + incidence | 1 | 357.2 | 0.95 (0.54, 1.00) | 100.0 (88.3, 100.0) | 79.6 (74.0, 85.2) |
4 | All pieces of information | 2 | 354.7 | 0.87 (0.46, 1.00) | 100.0 (88.3, 100.0) | 69.2 (62.8, 75.5) |