Figure 5

Primaquine reduces transmission when campaign coverage is very high. (A) At a coverage of 70%, addition of PQ to an AL MDA reduces prevalence 4 months post campaign by <5%. EIR is sampled at constant coverage for 100 stochastic realizations for each EIR. Compliance was 100% and 3 rounds of campaigns were conducted. Mean +/− one standard deviation is shown for each EIR value. A linear regression is shown (dotted line) correlating prevalence after MDA with AL + PQ to prevalence after a 3-round MDA with AL alone. (B) Prevalence reduction due to addition of PQ is highly dependent on coverage. The fractional relative prevalence reduction upon addition of PQ is the slope of the linear regression of prevalence with PQ to prevalence without PQ (panel A) subtracted from 1. Lines: bootstrapped mean fractional relative prevalence reduction at each level of coverage. Shaded areas: 95% confidence interval. (C) Higher coverage with ACTs and addition of primaquine lead to higher probability of local elimination, especially at higher EIR. Fraction of stochastic realizations leading to eradication is shown for 4 bins of annual EIR at each level of coverage, with 100 realizations per EIR per coverage. Compliance was 100% and 3 rounds of campaigns were conducted. The height of each bar is normalized to the total number of realizations in each EIR bin.