Figure 3
Campaign outcome depends on timing, diagnostic sensitivity, coverage, and compliance. (A) Asexual parasite prevalence (top) and daily EIR (bottom) of a semi-immune population of 1000 people with no intervention (black), multi-round MDA with AL (red), and multi-round MDA with DP (blue). Solid lines: 3-round campaigns. Dashed lines: 2-round campaigns. MDAs were simulated with 100% coverage and 100% compliance. Annual EIR was 50, and infected individuals were those with ≥10 asexual parasites/μL. DP’s long prophylactic tail better protects against reinfection after campaign. (B) Prevalence 1 month after campaign for 3-round and 2-round MDA campaigns with AL or DP. MDAs were simulated with 70% coverage and 100% compliance; annual EIR was 50. Error bars: 95% confidence interval. (C) Prevalence 1 month after 3-round MSAT campaigns with varying sensitivity of MSAT diagnostic. Coverage and compliance were 100%; annual EIR was 50. Shaded areas: 95% confidence interval. (D) Prevalence 1 month after 3-round MDA campaigns with varying coverage and 100% compliance. Annual EIR was 50. Shaded areas: 95% confidence interval. (E) Prevalence 1 month after 3-round MDA campaigns with varying compliance and 100% coverage. All covered individuals take the first dose of AL or DP; subsequent doses are taken with probability equal to the compliance. Annual EIR was 50. Shaded areas: 95% confidence interval.