Potential for a global dynamic of Influenza A (H1N1)

BMC Infectious Diseases

Table 1 Forecasted total attack and mortality rates for two pandemic profiles (R_{0, max} = 1.5 and GI = 2 versus R_{0, max} = 2.2 and GI = 3.1)

Scenario	Total attack rate (%)		Total attack rate North (%)		Total attack rate South (%)		Total attack rate Tropics (%)		Mortality rate (%)
	R_{0, max} = 1.5 GI = 2	R_{0, max} = 2.2 GI = 3.1	R_{0, max} = 1.5 GI = 2	R_{0, max} = 2.2 GI = 3.1	R_{0, max} = 1.5 GI = 2	R_{0, max} = 2.2 GI = 3.1	R_{0, max} = 1.5 GI = 2	R_{0, max} = 2.2 GI = 3.1	R_{0, max} = 1.5 GI = 2	R_{0, max} = 2.2 GI = 3.1
No vaccination	46	77	62	86	58	86	19	62	0.14	0.23
Vaccination in developed countries (14%)	37	71	47	74	55	86	17	62	0.11	0.21
Vaccination in all countries (30%)	9	51	11	45	32	86	2	52	0.03	0.15
Vaccination in all countries (50%)	4	43	1	31	32	86	2	52	0.01	0.13

Means of attack and mortality rates in the absence of any intervention and under different vaccination scenarios are calculated on 500 simulation runs for each scenario.

ISSN: 1471-2334