Figure 4

Effects of contact reduction measures. Number of outpatients expected during a pandemic wave if contact reduction measures are implemented additionally to the isolation of cases. Parameter values are based on the InfluSim standard configuration [15] with R ₀ = 2.5, except those listed at the end of this legend and indicated by superscripts¹. The dashed curve shows the epidemic without intervention. Contact reduction involves social distancing² and isolation of cases³. The curves show the effects caused by social distancing, where contacts are reduced by 0%⁴ (grey curve) up to 30%⁵ in steps of 2%⁶ (black curves, from left to right). Bars at the bottom of each graph illustrate the periods of contact reduction, which are in A: full, from day 0 to end, in B: delayed, from day 20 to the end, and in C: temporarily, from day 20 to day 50.¹:Parameter modifications are given in the following and terms in italics refer to terms in the InfluSim user interface. InfluSim output: N _i = cumulative proportion of the population infected, and N _o = cumulative proportion of outpatients in the population. ²: Contact reduction: ranging from 0–30% in steps of 2%. Range of days: varied between A, B, and C, see legend or grey bar at the bottom of each graph. ³: Isolation: Moderately sick cases: 10%, Severe cases (home): 20%, Severe cases (hospital): 30%. Range of days: varied between A, B, and C, see legend or grey bar at the bottom of each graph. ⁴: Intervention effect is based on Isolation alone, yielding N _i = 81%, N _o = 27% in A, B and C. ⁵: Yielding in A: N _i = 56%, N _o = 19%, and B: N _i = 57%, N _o = 19%, and C: N _i = 82%, N _o = 27%. ⁶: E.g. for a Contact reduction of 20%, we obtain in A: N _i = 68%, N _o = 22%, in B: N _i = 67%, N _o = 22%, and in C: N _i = 79%, N _o = 26%.