Figure 2

Results of the uncertainty analyses using a previously published transmission model [1, 2]. Blue data are predictions published previously (and described in detail in reference 1) assuming that viral attenuation in drug-resistant strains reduces only infectivity (in comparison with drug-sensitive strains). Red data are the new predictions assuming that viral attenuation in the drug-resistant strains reduces both infectivity and reactivation ability. (A) The median value of the 1,000 simulations in the uncertainty analysis is plotted. The prevalence of drug-resistant infectiousness (i.e., the prevalence of the individuals who are shedding drug-resistant HSV-2) is shown. (B) Predictions for the Treatment Evaluation Criterion (TEC(t)) is shown; the median value of the 1,000 simulations in the uncertainty analysis is plotted.