Figure 5
HAV burden estimates (aggregating all age-groups) in five scenarios. The baseline scenario, in which the transmission rate, βa(t), decreases by 5% per year in all age-groups, is compared to the situation in which βa is assumed constant over time (upper panel). Three outbreak scenarios were simulated by a 3-fold greater βa(t) in the year 2015 or 2025 only, in children aged 5–9 years, men 25–44 years, and elderly persons (80+ years) (lower panel).