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Table 4 Point estimates and 90% credible intervals (CrI) from the log-linear hierarchical models of PRNT titers

From: Variation in dengue virus plaque reduction neutralization testing: systematic review and pooled analysis

  

Model A

Model B

Intercept

Absolute Titer (90% CrI)

Primary exposure

Testing serotype

  

Uninfected

DENV1

0.42 (0.16, 1.17)

0.43 (0.15, 1.29)

DENV2

0.44 (0.15, 1.18)

0.43 (0.13, 1.35)

DENV3

0.44 (0.16, 1.24)

0.44 (0.14, 1.26)

DENV4

0.41 (0.14, 1.17)

0.42 (0.14, 1.19)

DENV1

DENV1

5.44 (2.91, 10.7)

15.1 (9.52, 23.8)

DENV2

0.59 (0.31, 1.14)

1.19 (0.75, 1.89)

DENV3

0.55 (0.28, 1.08)

1.17 (0.73, 1.85)

DENV4

0.13 (0.06, 0.27)

0.29 (0.17, 0.48)

DENV2

DENV1

0.13 (0.06, 0.25)

0.46 (0.26, 0.81)

DENV2

9.17 (4.84, 16.9)

26.1 (17.0, 40.9)

DENV3

0.22 (0.11, 0.44)

0.65 (0.38, 1.10)

DENV4

0.13 (0.06, 0.24)

0.37 (0.22, 0.63)

DENV3

DENV1

0.11 (0.05, 0.23)

0.36 (0.17, 0.77)

DENV2

0.13 (0.06, 0.27)

0.32 (0.16, 0.62)

DENV3

7.98 (3.96, 15.4)

32.6 (19.0, 55.2)

DENV4

0.11 (0.05, 0.26)

0.30 (0.14, 0.65)

DENV4

DENV1

0.22 (0.11, 0.48)

0.52 (0.24, 1.07)

DENV2

0.46 (0.21, 1.00)

0.98 (0.48, 1.99)

DENV3

0.30 (0.13, 0.69)

0.72 (0.37, 1.43)

DENV4

12.1 (5.93, 24.0)

29.8 (16.7, 52.4)

Testing serotype among secondary exposures

DENV1

26.5 (13.8, 53.8)

76.1 (43.0, 131)

DENV2

6.50 (3.26, 12.7)

17.6 (10.2, 30.3)

DENV3

5.46 (2.90, 10.4)

25.8 (15.3, 42.8)

DENV4

1.69 (0.79, 3.69)

2.63 (1.49, 4.57)

Fixed Effect

Relative Titer (90% CrI)

10% increase in neutralization percentage

1.23 (1.14, 1.33)

 

Vaccination

0.91 (0.70, 1.16)

0.89 (0.85, 0.94)

Time category

  

Unexposed

Reference

Reference

1-11 days post-exposure (d.p.e.)

4.16 (2.57, 6.71)

2.86 (1.59, 5.01)

12-30 d.p.e.

8.51 (5.47, 13.2)

7.11 (4.46, 11.5)

31 -365 d.p.e.

5.57 (3.79, 8.24)

5.44 (3.68, 8.02)

>365 d.p.e.

3.13 (2.05, 4.81)

1.80 (0.98, 3.24)

Random Effect

Relative Titer (90% CrI)

Testing serotype

Testing strain

  

DENV1

16007

Reference

 
 

Hawaii

1.18 (0.79, 1.75)

 
 

Other DENV1 strains

0.97 (0.63, 1.50)

 

DENV2

16681

Reference

 
 

New Guinea B

0.90 (0.53, 1.53)

 
 

New Guinea C

0.64 (0.40, 1.00)

 
 

PR-159

0.48 (0.25, 0.85)

 
 

Other DENV2 strains

0.90 (0.60, 1.31)

 

DENV3

16562

Reference

 
 

H87

0.76 (0.49, 1.15)

 
 

116/00

1.33 (0.91, 1.96)

 
 

Other DENV3 strains

0.62 (0.43, 0.90)

 

DENV4

1036

Reference

 
 

H241

0.73 (0.45, 1.17)

 
 

Dominica/814669

0.32 (0.16, 0.62)

 
 

4328-S

1.60 (1.02, 2.55)

 
 

Other DENV4 strains

1.13 (0.66, 1.88)

 

Variance Components

Proportion of the total variance (90% CrI)

Strain

8.04% (3.05%, 15.7%)

 

Article

 

50.7% (30.8%, 71.6%)

Deviance Information Criteria

14910

14830

  1. The two models account for variance in PRNT titers due to differences between strains (Model A) or articles (Model B). The average PRNT titer of sera collected from individuals with specific characteristics can be calculated as the product of the exponential of the coefficients listed. For example, using estimates from model A, the average titer for convalescent individuals with primary infections from DENV2, tested against DENV2 strain New Guinea B using a PRNT60 would be: 9.17 [primary DENV2 exposure, tested against DENV2] * 0.90 [tested against New Guinea B] * 1.236 [PRNT60] * 8.51 [12–30 days post-exposure] = 243, or 1:243. Similarly, under the same conditions, secondary DENV2 exposure via vaccination would result in an average titer of 1:157 (6.50 [secondary DENV2 exposure, tested against DENV2] * 0.90 * 0.91 [vaccination] * 1.236 * 8.51 = 157).
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