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Table 2 Optimal attack rate reductions and sensitivity to activation trigger for school closure strategies.

From: Developing guidelines for school closure interventions to be used during a future influenza pandemic

  

School closure duration

  

2 weeks

4 weeks

8 weeks

R0

Intervention

Attack rate

Activation trigger range

Attack rate

Activation trigger range

Attack rate

Activation trigger range

1.5

none

32.5

 

32.5

 

32.5

 
 

ISC

25.0

30 - 70

22.7

20 - 50

19.0

10 - 30

 

SSC

24.7

60 - 80

22.4

40 - 60

18.3

20 - 30

 

ISC + AV

17.3

1 - 30

16.0

1-30

14.0

1-20

 

SSC + AV

17.0

30 - 40

15.9

20-30

13.8

20-30

2.0

none

49.9

 

49.9

 

49.9

 
 

ISC

45.0

40 - 90

43.0

10 - 70

41.0

1 - 10

 

SSC

45.2

70 - 90

42.8

30 - 90

40.5

10 - 30

 

ISC + AV

35.5

1- 80

33.6

20 - 90

31.6

1 - 10

 

SSC + AV

35.3

70 - 90

33.4

50 - 90

31.5

10 - 50

2.5

none

58.8

 

58.8

 

58.8

 
 

ISC

55.8

30 - 90

54.8

1 - 20

54.5

1 - 50

 

SSC

55.7

80 - 90

54.7

10 - 90

54.2

1 - 50

 

ISC + AV

46.7

30 - 90

45.5

1 - 90

44.8

1 - 10

 

SSC + AV

46.7

60 - 90

45.5

20 - 90

44.3

1 - 30

  1. For each R0 value in, each school closure intervention (individual vs. simultaneous, with and without antiviral treatment and household prophylaxis), and each school closure duration (of 2, 4 or 8 weeks), this table gives: (a) the reduced attack rate attained by closing schools with the optimal time (i.e. using the optimal activation trigger), and (b) the range of activation triggers for which the attack rate reduction is almost the same as the optimal value. Attack rate is expressed in % of population. The range of school closure activation trigger as a reported number of daily diagnosed cases. The bold activation trigger indicates the wider range of a school closure strategy for which that strategy would be more effective i.e. the attack rate would be almost same. A diagnosis ratio of 50% is assumed.