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Table 1 Definition and values of parameters and variables in model (1) in the local outbreak in Shanghai

From: Lessons drawn from Shanghai for controlling highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants: insights from a modelling study

Parameter

Definition

Value(95%CI)

Source

\(c\)

--

Contact rate among free population

--

--

\({c}_{1}\)

Contact rate before 2 April

31.895[31.072–32.732]

Estimated

\({c}_{2}\)

Contact rate from 3 to 10 April

16.460[15.939–17.011]

Estimated

\({c}_{3}\)

Contact rate from 11 to 18 April

6.823[6.659–6.936]

Estimated

\({c}_{4}\)

Contact rate from 19 to 28 April

8.212[8.012–8.387]

Estimated

\(k\)

Linear increasing rate of contact rate from 28 April to 31 May

0.150[0.147–0.154]

Estimated

\(\beta\)

 

Transmission probability per contact among the non-quarantined population

0.085[0.082–0.087]

Estimated

\({\beta }_{q}\)

 

Transmission rate from quarantined infectious to quarantined susceptible individuals

0.806[0.783–0.824]

Estimated

\(\lambda\)

 

Release rate of quarantined susceptible individuals

1/14

[38]

\(\sigma\)

 

Transition rate from exposed to infectious

1/3

[42]

\(q\)

 

Tracing and quarantine rate

--

--

\({q}_{1}\)

Quarantine rate before 28 March

0.618[0.604–0.629]

Estimated

\({q}_{2}\)

Quarantine rate from 29 March to 14 April

0.757[0.734–0.769]

Estimated

\({q}_{3}\)

Quarantine rate from 15 April

0.799[0.779–0.817]

Estimated

\(\delta\)

 

Diagnosis rate of infectious individuals

--

--

\({\delta }_{1}\)

Diagnosis rate before 3 April

0.221[0.214–0.228]

Estimated

\({\delta }_{2}\)

Diagnosis rate from 4 to 14 April (Nucleic acid testing once every two days with antigen testing)

0.273[0.267–0.279]

Estimated

\({\delta }_{3}\)

Diagnosis rate from 15 April (Nucleic acid testing once per day with antigen testing)

0.374[0.366–0.382]

Estimated

\({\delta }_{q}\)

 

Diagnosis rate of quarantined infectious individuals

0.642[0.622–0.659]

Estimated

\(\gamma\)

 

Natural recovery rate of infectious individuals

1/7

[38]

\({\gamma }_{H}\)

 

Recovery rate of hospitalized and isolated cases

1/7

[38]

\(d\)

 

Disease-related death rate

2.995[2.888–3.079]*e-5

Estimated

Initial value

Definition

Value(95%CI)

Source

\(S\left(0\right)\)

 

Initial susceptible population

24,900,000

Data

\(E\left(0\right)\)

 

Initial exposed population

10.535[10.335–10.794]

Estimated

\(I\left(0\right)\)

 

Initial infectious population

1

Data

\({S}_{q}\left(0\right)\)

 

Initial quarantined susceptible population

277

Data

\({E}_{q}\left(0\right)\)

 

Initial quarantined exposed population

0

Assumed

\({I}_{q}\left(0\right)\)

 

Initial quarantined infectious population

1

Data

\(H\left(0\right)\)

 

Initial hospitalized and isolated population

0

Data

\(R\left(0\right)\)

 

Initial recovered population

0

Data

\(D\left(0\right)\)

 

Initial dead population

0

Data