Parameter | Definition | Value(95%CI) | Source | |
\(c\) | -- | Contact rate among free population | -- | -- |
\({c}_{1}\) | Contact rate before 2 April | 31.895[31.072–32.732] | Estimated | |
\({c}_{2}\) | Contact rate from 3 to 10 April | 16.460[15.939–17.011] | Estimated | |
\({c}_{3}\) | Contact rate from 11 to 18 April | 6.823[6.659–6.936] | Estimated | |
\({c}_{4}\) | Contact rate from 19 to 28 April | 8.212[8.012–8.387] | Estimated | |
\(k\) | Linear increasing rate of contact rate from 28 April to 31 May | 0.150[0.147–0.154] | Estimated | |
\(\beta\) |  | Transmission probability per contact among the non-quarantined population | 0.085[0.082–0.087] | Estimated |
\({\beta }_{q}\) |  | Transmission rate from quarantined infectious to quarantined susceptible individuals | 0.806[0.783–0.824] | Estimated |
\(\lambda\) | Â | Release rate of quarantined susceptible individuals | 1/14 | [38] |
\(\sigma\) | Â | Transition rate from exposed to infectious | 1/3 | [42] |
\(q\) | Â | Tracing and quarantine rate | -- | -- |
\({q}_{1}\) | Quarantine rate before 28 March | 0.618[0.604–0.629] | Estimated | |
\({q}_{2}\) | Quarantine rate from 29 March to 14 April | 0.757[0.734–0.769] | Estimated | |
\({q}_{3}\) | Quarantine rate from 15 April | 0.799[0.779–0.817] | Estimated | |
\(\delta\) | Â | Diagnosis rate of infectious individuals | -- | -- |
\({\delta }_{1}\) | Diagnosis rate before 3 April | 0.221[0.214–0.228] | Estimated | |
\({\delta }_{2}\) | Diagnosis rate from 4 to 14 April (Nucleic acid testing once every two days with antigen testing) | 0.273[0.267–0.279] | Estimated | |
\({\delta }_{3}\) | Diagnosis rate from 15 April (Nucleic acid testing once per day with antigen testing) | 0.374[0.366–0.382] | Estimated | |
\({\delta }_{q}\) |  | Diagnosis rate of quarantined infectious individuals | 0.642[0.622–0.659] | Estimated |
\(\gamma\) | Â | Natural recovery rate of infectious individuals | 1/7 | [38] |
\({\gamma }_{H}\) | Â | Recovery rate of hospitalized and isolated cases | 1/7 | [38] |
\(d\) |  | Disease-related death rate | 2.995[2.888–3.079]*e-5 | Estimated |
Initial value | Definition | Value(95%CI) | Source | |
\(S\left(0\right)\) | Â | Initial susceptible population | 24,900,000 | Data |
\(E\left(0\right)\) |  | Initial exposed population | 10.535[10.335–10.794] | Estimated |
\(I\left(0\right)\) | Â | Initial infectious population | 1 | Data |
\({S}_{q}\left(0\right)\) | Â | Initial quarantined susceptible population | 277 | Data |
\({E}_{q}\left(0\right)\) | Â | Initial quarantined exposed population | 0 | Assumed |
\({I}_{q}\left(0\right)\) | Â | Initial quarantined infectious population | 1 | Data |
\(H\left(0\right)\) | Â | Initial hospitalized and isolated population | 0 | Data |
\(R\left(0\right)\) | Â | Initial recovered population | 0 | Data |
\(D\left(0\right)\) | Â | Initial dead population | 0 | Data |