Table 4 Highest intervention impact estimates of HIV prevalence (%) without (baseline) and with scale-up of interventions; relative reduction in prevalence, incidence, AIDS-related mortality, and number of new infections over 15 years (obtained by comparing the model with intervention scale-up to the baseline model after 15 years). LR = low risk, MR = medium risk, HR = high risk
Baseline model (without intervention scale-up) | Intervention scale-up model | Relative reduction (compared to baseline) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HIV prevalence in July 2029 | Prevalence | Incidence | AIDS-related mortality | New infections over 15 years | ||
Overall | 14.14% (13.17–15.13) | 8.75% (7.98–9.55) | 0.3810 | 0.8668 | 0.5376 | 0.4123 |
Female LR | 16.78% (15.18–18.42) | 10.51% (9.26–11.89) | 0.3739 | 0.8672 | 0.5478 | 0.4092 |
Female MR | 27.90% (16.14–40.96) | 18.34% (9.87–31.41) | 0.3425 | 0.8500 | 0.5320 | 0.3848 |
Female HR | 29.85% (21.82–39.42) | 20.33% (13.26–28.28) | 0.3192 | 0.8315 | 0.5170 | 0.3651 |
Male LR | 10.88% (9.50–12.35) | 6.37% (5.33–7.55) | 0.4144 | 0.8815 | 0.5389 | 0.4299 |
Male MR | 15.67% (11.81–20.52) | 9.64% (6.59–13.63) | 0.3848 | 0.8651 | 0.5222 | 0.4104 |
Male HR | 9.53% (7.12–12.45) | 6.07% (4.15–8.48) | 0.3636 | 0.8443 | 0.5056 | 0.3983 |