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Fig. 1 | BMC Infectious Diseases

Fig. 1

From: Modelling the impact of combining HIV prevention interventions on HIV dynamics in fishing communities in Uganda

Fig. 1

Overall HIV prevalence (a) and incidence (b) obtained under the baseline model (full black line) and the ‘best fit’ model with intervention scale-up (dashed red line) giving the highest reduction in incidence, 1969–2029. Intervention scale-up started in 2014 (dotted grey vertical line). The impact of decreasing the yearly rate of ART dropout from 20 to 5%, assuming no increase in condom use, and lowering the probability of ART initiation in the chronic stage from 73 to 30%, while keeping all other parameters fixed at their calibrated value as in Table S2 (for a) or Table S3 (for b), are also shown. Parameter estimates for the baseline model are shown in Table S2, while parameter estimates for the intervention uptake under the highest-impact scenario are shown in Table S3 (see Additional File 1)

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