Table 2 Comparison of observed value of \(R_{t}\) and predicted values obtained from exponential trend equation models during two COVID-19 outbreaks in Dalian
Date | Predicted values | Observed value | 95%CI | Relative error (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
In the COVID-19 outbreak during July 22 to August 5, 2020 | ||||
2020/7/29 | 1.629 | 1.499 | 1.076–1.992 | 8.672 |
2020/7/30 | 1.388 | 1.601 | 1.185–2.080 | − 13.304 |
2020/7/31 | 1.183 | 1.461 | 1.081–1.898 | − 19.028 |
2020/8/1 | 1.008 | 1.221 | 0.887–1.608 | − 17.445 |
2020/8/2 | 0.859 | 1.073 | 0.770–1.425 | − 19.944 |
In the COVID-19 outbreak during March 14 to April 2, 2022 | ||||
2022/3/18 | 7.318 | 6.984 | 6.286–7.719 | 4.783 |
2022/3/19 | 5.654 | 5.332 | 4.833–5.854 | 6.037 |
2022/3/20 | 4.368 | 3.883 | 3.525–4.257 | 12.495 |
2022/3/21 | 3.375 | 2.993 | 2.723–3.277 | 12.758 |
2022/3/22 | 2.607 | 2.187 | 1.983–2.401 | 19.222 |
2022/3/23 | 2.014 | 1.605 | 1.447–1.771 | 25.511 |
2022/3/24 | 1.556 | 1.232 | 1.105–1.367 | 26.328 |
2022/3/25 | 1.202 | 0.957 | 0.851–1.068 | 25.646 |
2022/3/26 | 0.929 | 0.712 | 0.625–0.805 | 30.477 |