Fig. 3

Effect of Go To Travel campaign on prefectures exceeding certain criteria in Model 2. The number of prefectures where the number of newly reported cases (per 100,000 population) before and after the campaign (intervention) exceeded the threshold values of three, five, and seven cases per week are shown. The vertical lines indicate when the second Go To Travel campaign (intervention) started. The yellow dots represent observed data; the blue lines show the estimated results of the interrupted time-series analysis. The blue shaded areas indicate 95% confidence intervals for the modeled results. The blue dashed lines during the second campaign period represent the estimated counterfactual scenario, i.e., if the campaign had not been launched. Compared with model 1, which assumed changes before and after the second campaign, model 2 additionally accounted for temperature