Fig. 7

WIS scores for predictions of A incident cases and B incident deaths for a performance weighted computational ensemble (blue circle), human judgement ensemble (red square), and chimeric ensemble (yellow triangle) over all imputation techniques for a “defer to the crowd” imputation strategy. The mean WIS and 95% confidence interval over all imputation techniques is plotted. For incident cases, the predictive performance for a chimeric ensemble is similar to or improved when compared to a computational ensemble and despite poorer performance from human judgement alone. For incident deaths, though a computational ensemble has improved performance a chimeric ensemble outperforms a computational ensemble on two surveys and again is able to leverage human judgement to make improved forecasts