Table 6 Model based on DRC 2018 (North Kivu) vs Sierra Leone 2014: comparison of underlying data
Parameter | Sierra Leone 2014 | DRC 2018 (North Kivu) |
|---|---|---|
Population | Total 7,017,144; HCW 1153 | Total 8,300,000; HCW 5230 |
Overall cases | 8704 cases over 480Â days as reported by WHO; we took a time horizon of 587Â days as there were no cases/deaths reported after the first 480Â days | 2791 confirmed cases (February 4, 2020) over 546Â days in North Kivu as reported by WHO |
Overall deaths | 3589 deaths as reported by WHO | 1875 deaths as reported by WHO |
HCW cases | 296 cases as reported by Fang 2016 | 145 cases; derived for North Kivu based on HCW cases reported for DRC as a whole by the WHO |
Number of periods for model fitting (calibration) | Model horizon was divided into three periods for fitting: 0–95, 95–186, and 186 to 587 | Model horizon was divided into five periods for fitting: 0–120, 120–217, 217–273, 273–385 and 385–546 |
Duration of epidemic |  > 99% cases were reported in 370 days |  > 99% cases were reported in the first 518 days |