Table 3 Impact of prophylactic vaccination of HCW and GP on burden of EVD-base scenario

Number vaccinated

0

346

1038

351,145

701,944

0

1569

4707

416,307

831,044

Cumulative cases (IQR; 95%CI)

8711 (4420–11,946; 597–22,026)

5819 (2680–8100; 207–15,985)

2536 (919–3627; 51–7838)

2594 (1114–3623; 87–7432)

1271 (499–1797; 50–3699)

2782 (700–4026; 54–9637)

1624 (296–2410; 46–6072)

576 (115–762; 36–2620)

645 (148–901; 40–2630)

315 (104–416; 36–1180)

Proportion of cases averted vs no vaccination (IQR; 95%CI)

–

33% (32–40%; 26–62%)

71% (69–79%; 63–93%)

70% (70–75%; 66–84%)

85% (85–89%; 82–93%)

–

42% (39–52%; 15–59%)

79% (76–86%; 33–87%)

77% (75–81%; 26–82%)

89% (85–90%; 33–90%)

Proportion of cases averted vs vaccination of 30% of HCW (IQR; 95%CI)

–

–

–

55% (55–58%; 52–63%)

78% (78–81%; 74–85%)

–

–

–

60% (50–63%; 14–65%)

81% (65–82%; 22–83%)

Cumulative deaths (IQR; 95%CI)

3580 (1834–4901; 246–9000)

2376 (1081–3305; 75–6576)

1021 (362–1465; 22–3189)

985 (418–1384; 37–2816)

463 (182–657; 22–1343)

1876 (477–2722; 36–6453)

1098 (198–1627; 30–4097)

390 (76–515; 24–1785)

439 (99–614; 26–1796)

213 (70–281; 24–806)

Proportion of deaths averted vs no vaccination (IQR; 95%CI)

–

34% (33–41%; 27–62%)

71% (70–80%; 64–92%)

72% (72–77%; 68–84%)

87% (87–90%; 84–92%)

–

41% (39–52%; 17–59%)

79% (76–86%; 34–87%)

77% (74–81%; 29–82%)

89% (85–90%; 34–90%)

Proportion of deaths averted vs vaccination of 30% of HCW (IQR; 95%CI)

–

–

–

59% (58–61%; 51–64%)

81% (80–82%; 71–85%)

–

–

–

60% (50–63%; 14–65%)

81% (65–82%; 21–83%)